do not deviate from the trajectory

“Just a moment longer, Mr. Executioner!” Part of the European car industry seems to have adopted the apocryphal phrase of the Countess du Barry. Several manufacturers are lobbying intensively with the European Commission to push back the deadline for implementing rules aimed at limiting CO emissions.₂ vehicles.

At the heart of the concerns is the tightening of the so-called “CAFE” (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standard, which caps the average level of CO emissions.₂ per kilometer and per car sold. From 2025, these must be lowered by 15% compared to their 2021 level. Manufacturers who do not reach this target face heavy fines. A few months before the deadline, some manufacturers such as Volkswagen or Renault risk finding themselves out of line. A document was sent to the Commission services to brandish the threat of “millions” of job cuts in Europe if the deadlines are maintained.

These manufacturers feel they are facing a dilemma: either pay significant penalties or give up marketing combustion vehicles in order to increase the share of electric cars in their overall sales and thus pass the bar set by the Commission. A third solution would be to buy carbon credits from more virtuous manufacturers such as the American Tesla or certain Chinese brands. In any case, the loss of revenue would weaken the economic model of the offenders.

The reasoning is based on the fact that sales of electric cars, after a strong increase in recent years, tend to level off and that the projections made when the new standards were developed would now be obsolete. However, this logic is undermined by the observation that some, such as Stellantis (Peugeot, Citroën, Fiat, Chrysler, etc.) or BMW, will have no trouble complying with the CAFE standard. Which means that the success or failure to comply with European rules depends mainly on the strategy specific to each manufacturer.

Climate challenge

However, in recent years, some have chosen to boost their profits by focusing their range on large, high-margin vehicles to the detriment of smaller, more affordable models whose sales volumes would have allowed them to meet the CO emissions criteria.₂ demanded by the European Union. By choosing short-term profitability, these manufacturers have not given themselves the means to support the inevitable shift towards electric cars, putting the fate of thousands of employees at risk.

The European Commission has rejected the request to postpone the deadlines. Brussels is all the more right not to deviate from the trajectory it has set itself since manufacturers who have made the effort to comply with the new standards should not be disadvantaged. Moreover, according to several experts, the current market slump is only temporary. Sales will pick up again as soon as more affordable models become available.

This controversy only contributes to perpetuating the myth that the electric vehicle would be a mistake leading to a major industrial accident. However, in the face of the climate challenge, this transition is the least bad solution. The way China has approached it clearly shows that it was in no way doomed to failure. No one can take advantage of their own turpitude. This also applies to the automobile industry.