Fri 06 Sep 2024 ▪
3
min read ▪ by
Luc Jose A.
Bitcoin fell to $56,000, losing nearly 5% of its value in a few days. However, professional traders are showing some resilience. Liquidations are moderate and market indicators show unexpected stability, a notable contrast to previous phases of volatility.
Traders withstand the storm
Bitcoin fell to $55,860 after reaching $59,090 earlier in the month. This drop led to the liquidation of long positions on the futures market. According to available data, nearly $58 million was liquidated. This relatively modest amount indicates that long-term investors were not caught off guard by this decline. That’s why they don’t seem to have used excessive leverage. In fact, despite this situation, the premium on Bitcoin futures contracts remains at 6%. Such a level is considered neutral, as between 5% and 10%.
Furthermore, Bitcoin options, another key market indicator, also reveal this lack of widespread pessimism. The delta skew, which measures the difference between call and put option prices, has remained stable around 3% in recent days, well below the 7% threshold that would indicate fear of a more significant correction. In short, even if Bitcoin is down, professional traders are not anticipating a further drastic drop in the immediate future.
Economic factors in the background
Employment figures released in the United States, notably the ADP report, show the creation of 99,000 jobs in August, well below forecasts. This data has weighed on Bitcoin’s momentum. Indeed, it has fueled concerns about the Federal Reserve’s ability to avoid a recession and control inflation, although they are not sufficient on their own to trigger a massive wave of Bitcoin sales.
Monetary policy and tensions around the upcoming US presidency add a layer of uncertainty that could influence Bitcoin. If the history of halving cycles repeats itself, Bitcoin could still see a recovery in the coming months. If this trend continues, a rebound could materialize by the end of the year.
Even if Bitcoin’s decline fuels speculation about the end of a bullish cycle, technical indicators and macroeconomic data still do not offer clear signals of a widespread bearish trend.
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Luc Jose A.
A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of a blockchain consultant certification issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I made a commitment to raise awareness and inform the general public about this constantly evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and seize the opportunities it offers. I strive every day to provide an objective analysis of current events, decipher market trends, relay the latest technological innovations and put into perspective the economic and societal challenges of this ongoing revolution.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
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