After a heartbreaking Week 0 loss, New Mexico heads to Tucson to take on Arizona on Saturday.
The Wildcats are a 29.5-point favorite against the Lobos, and we highlight why their star receiver will be the key to victory in our New Mexico vs. Arizona predictions and college football picks for August 31.
New Mexico vs Arizona prediction
My best bet
Tetairoa McMillan Over 95.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Entering the season as a favorite to win the Biletnikoff, Tetairoa McMillan is arguably the most dangerous receiver in the country.
The former five-star recruit had a breakout sophomore season, finishing fifth in the country in receiving yards (1,402) while averaging 107.8 yards per game.
And for as well as New Mexico played in its Week 0 loss to Montana State, this is still a team that was 128th out of 133 teams in SP+ on defense last season.
The Lobos also finished 131st in EPA per pass on defense last year, meanwhile, the Arizona Wildcats had one of the most potent passing attacks in the country.
It’s not as if McMillan has to do it all by himself, he has one of the premier QBs in the Big 12. Fellow junior Noah Fifita helped Arizona finish 21st in EPA per pass last season, and he finished top 40 in the country in passing yards, despite not starting the whole year.
With that QB continuity, McMillan will surely toast New Mexico. The future first-round pick was second in the country last season in contested catches (17) and 21st in yards per route run (2.79), per PFF.
He managed to top 95.5 receiving yards in six of 13 games last year but got better as the season went on. Over his final four games against Colorado, Utah, Arizona State, and Oklahoma, McMillan averaged 162.2 receiving yards per game.
The Lobos have far less talent in their secondary than those teams and don’t stand a chance at containing McMillan.
New Mexico vs Arizona same-game parlay (SGP)
Tetairoa McMillan any time touchdown
Montana Lemonious-Craig any time touchdown
Arizona – 29.5
Over 58.5
New Mexico won’t be able to slow down McMillan from picking up yards or scoring touchdowns. He’s found the end zone 18 times in two seasons in Tucson, including in nine of 13 games last year.
He’s twice played against Group of Five teams in his career and scored in both games. But he won’t be alone in putting up points, which is why the Over is certainly in play.
With Fifita at the helm, the Wildcats should be scoring frequently. Alongside McMillan at receiver, Arizona has Montana Lemonious-Craig, who’s set to fill the void left by Jacob Cowing.
Cowing scored 13 touchdowns last season and Arizona had 36 total touchdown passes, setting Lemonious-Craig up to bolster his numbers.
Between that trio, Arizona can both cover and hit the Over. The Wildcats were 11-2 ATS last season.
New Mexico should be able to help with the Over, too. The Lobos put up 31 points against a stingy Bobcats defense in Week 0 and quarterback Devon Dampier showed off his athleticism frequently.
He could pose a challenge to Arizona, which was 70th in EPA per pass on defense last season and is just 57th in returning production on that side of the ball.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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New Mexico vs Arizona odds
New Mexico vs Arizona live odds
New Mexico vs Arizona opening odds
- Spread: New Mexico +30 | Arizona -30
- Moneyline: New Mexico OTB | Arizona OTB
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 | Under 54.5
New Mexico vs Arizona spread and Over/Under analysis
- Arizona opened as a 29.5 to 30.5-point with little movement at most books.
- The Wildcats were 11-2 ATS last season while New Mexico was 6-6, but covered in its Week 0 opener.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 50.5 but has since shot up to between 58.5 and 59.5 at most books.
- Arizona was just 5-8 betting the Over last year, but the Lobos are 10-3 betting the Over since last season.
New Mexico vs Arizona betting trend to know
New Mexico has hit the game total Over in nine of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for New Mexico vs Arizona.
New Mexico vs Arizona game info
| Location: | Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-31, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:30 pm ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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