Why Ricciardo is a collateral victim of the Red Bull conundrum

The decision of the Red Bull and VCARB teams to sideline Daniel Ricciardo during the season has nothing to do with the idea that his performances were so poor that an immediate change was necessary.

Laurent Mekies, the boss of the Italian outfit, made it clear last weekend that if the Australian had the right car, as in the Miami sprint this year, his pure speed would allow him to get the most out of it. .

On the contrary, the major maneuvers which triggered Ricciardo’s departure from F1 and which allowed Liam Lawson to find a competitive cockpit can be explained in large part by the fact that Red Bull needed to take the lead on the matter. pilots with a view to 2026.

If we take a step back, it’s worth remembering that Ricciardo’s return to VCARB last year was ultimately a test to join Red Bull. With Sergio Pérez having struggled in the second half of 2023, Red Bull knew that if the Australian posted the same speed as in the post-British GP test in the RB19 of the year last, he would be a comfort solution if his Mexican holder failed to raise his level of play.

But things didn’t get off to a great start as Ricciardo suffered a broken wrist at Zandvoort, paving the way for Lawson, who has impressed in his five races with the team. Then, with Pérez in deep trouble at the start of 2024, Ricciardo’s inconsistency prevented him from convincing Red Bull that he would automatically deliver an improvement in performance if he returned to Milton Keynes.

There was a very brief period around the Hungarian and Belgian GPs this season where Ricciardo still seemed to be in contention for the seat as Red Bull lost hope in Pérez, but once the team is committed to maintaining the Mexican, the events that unfolded this week were set in stone.

What looms over the minds of Red Bull’s bosses is the question of what to do with its drivers for 2026 – even though, in theory, Max Verstappen and Pérez both have contracts. However, it is impossible to guarantee 100% their presence at this time.

Verstappen could join another team or leave F1 altogether, while Pérez needs to perform better to secure his place. These eventualities mean that Red Bull cannot take the risk of not having other top options on the table if they have to turn to a plan B.

The team must make sure it has its back on two fronts. Firstly, it needs to keep an eye on top talent from other teams – which is why Red Bull Racing director Christian Horner played spoilsport by saying George Russell could be a target for him to the future.

But what Red Bull needs most is to know who is the fittest among its current pool of young drivers – and the only way to be sure is to start the comparisons now.

With Ricciardo not a long-term option, Red Bull couldn’t really wait until early 2025 to reinstate Lawson and get a definitive verdict on his performance compared to Yuki Tsunoda.

If Pérez’s situation does not improve by the end of the campaign, Red Bull must determine with certainty who will be the best replacement should the need arise.

It’s pretty clear that Red Bull don’t think Tsunoda is the right fit alongside Verstappen, but starting Lawson without him having had a decent run of races to show his potential would be taking a big risk. Plus, if Pérez leaves and Lawson isn’t up to the task, then Red Bull could find themselves looking for two drivers….

So, while it would have been nice to give Ricciardo the opportunity for a farewell tour to end the season, time is not on Red Bull’s side. This is why the firm needs to ascertain Lawson’s profile as quickly as possible to know where to place him: is he promised a place in the flagship or does he need more time to progress ?

There is also the debate about what to do with the other junior drivers. Isack Hadjar is doing a good job in F2 and is knocking on the door of F1, while Ayumu Iwasa is racking up podiums in Super Formula.

As stated by Helmut Marko, Red Bull motorsport advisor, in a video published by Motorsport-Total.com, a publication affiliated with Motorsport.comthis is a broader issue. “Ricciardo was recalled with the possibility of him joining Red Bull Racing if he had displayed the required performance at Racing Bulls”he explained.

“But we have to see things in a broader context. We have quite a few young drivers. This is the case of Hadjar, of Lawson. This is also the case of Iwasa, without establishing a ranking. We must looking to the future And we also want to make comparisons: where does Lawson compare to Yuki? Then, looking forward, what will the driver duo look like for our two teams?

So that’s what’s at stake. Red Bull’s shake-up for the United States Grand Prix is ​​not intended to improve current results, but rather to prepare for what happens in 18 months.