what is Armand Duplantis' limit in pole vault?

6.17m in February 2020, 6.20m in March 2022, 6.25m during the Paris Olympics and now 6.26m since the end of August. Centimeter by centimeter, Armand Duplantis erases his pole vault world records. In search of your own limit, human limits. Because the Swedish pole vaulter never stops defying the laws of physics, supposed to predict the maximum height he could reach. As proof, in 2008, a group of scientists estimated that no pole vaulter would ever jump above 6.19m. Sixteen years and a record of 6.26m later, it is clear that science has missed the mark.

It is now the turn of artificial intelligence to take the bets. Last June, the Swedish Olympic Committee and Armand Duplantis himself relayed an approximation calculated by AI, which estimates the athlete's perfect jump at… 6.51m. “ With “Mondo”, human limits are constantly pushed back. But to say that he will pass 6.50m is completely unrealistic,” breathes Thibaut Collet, author of the best French performance in 2024 with 5.95m. “ A mathematical equation cannot explain our sport, adds Philippe Collet, father of Thibaut and five-time French champion. What may be true in theory is not necessarily true in reality because our sport takes into account a multitude of factors.

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Even if Duplantis' pelvis during a jump has already been measured at more than 6.50m, for the microcosm of pole vaulters, passing this bar with one's entire body seems unlikely. “ These predictions are made for dreaming. A communication operation, which worked very well without us knowing what parameters and what methods they used”laughs Johan Cassirame, researcher affiliated with the C3S laboratory at the University of Franche-Comté, president of MTraining and holder of a pharaonic database on the sport, which has become a reference for many pole vaulters including the Collets.

Thanks to a mathematical formula* taking into account only the speed at the moment of the jumper's impulse and applicable to all athletes, the three researchers are able to approach the simplistic estimate of the AI. “ Quite a few parameters are not taken into account by the model such as the energy provided by the athlete, the form of jump, the pole etc.. », nuances the researcher. Omissions which only allow the result to be expressed more or less fifteen centimeters away. A detail that makes Thibaut Collet chuckle: “ There we realize that it's not serious. On the pole, fifteen centimeters are two different worlds. »

What realistic limits for Duplantis?

What can we expect from this extraordinary athlete flashed in the middle of a sprint with a pole at more than 36 km/h, endowed with unrivaled strength and technique? To avoid falling into arithmetic speculation, forecasting Armand Duplantis' maximum performance must take into account his way of organizing his career. Indeed, since February 2020 and his jump of 6.17m, the Swede never attempts the impossible but beats his own record centimeter after centimeter, two to three times a year.

Today, it is worth more than 6.30m. In absolute terms, it can approach 6.40m

Philippe Collet

Firstly for bonuses but also to maintain achievable short-term objectives. “ Without this “Mondo” could get tired. In competitions, he very often jumps alone. His training programs are also very monotonous. In training, the other pole vaulters jump because it's entertaining but it's also very traumatic for the bodydeciphers Johan Cassirame. He almost only trains in speed because he jumped so much when he was young that he has a real feeling with the pole. » However, with this method, the risk is to never know the perfect Duplantis jump because at this rate it would take approximately 9 years to reach 6.50m.

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However, as Johan Cassirame's study points out, all pole vaulters who evolved beyond 6 meters experienced a decline in performance around the age of 28. “Mondo”, who was born in 1999, could therefore see his exploits limited before the next Olympics. “ “Mondo” could reach 6.37m in the next five years »project the three researchers in their study. Same story for the Collets, father and son. “ 6.35m is what is possible”Thibaut bets. Philippe sees things even bigger. “ What I am certain of is that today it is worth more than 6.30m. In absolute terms, it can approach 6.40m. » A prediction that matches that of Armand Duplantis' father, Greg Duplantis, who hopes to see his son one day attempt a bar at 6.40m.

What impacts of technologies?

In the history of pole vaulting, the progression of records has reached stages thanks to the arrival of new, more efficient materials for manufacturing poles. From wood to bamboo to steel etc. However, since the time of Sergei Bubka (record at 6.15m in 1993), the poles have always been made of the same alloy of fiberglass and carbon fiber. “ The material no longer changes. The poles are always the same and the same length (around 5.20m, editor’s note). The hardware does not evolve because the technology is optimal », note Thibaut Collet.

However, Johan Cassirame – who studies the energy transfer of poles – reveals that manufacturers are working on adapting poles to the jumping techniques of elite athletes. Thus, American pole vaulter Sam Kendricks now jumps with a pole that no longer bends in the center (called a C bend) but more on one side: a J bend.

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Micro-evolutions, which allow pole vaulters to gain performance but also to think about new manufacturing processes. “ We could also imagine 3D printing the poles to be finer in the design. Otherwise, in the list of candidate materials, there is Kevlar even if its cost is too high”notes Johan Cassirame. So many innovations, which could allow Duplantis to obtain additional centimeters to further thwart scientists' predictions.

*Mathematical formula used: h = (0.9879*v)- 3.6977; where h is the height and v the speed reached by the pole vaulter before jumping