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Shakhtar Donetsk – : the top 8, so close, so far for Stade Brestois

Champions League (7th day). Shakhtar Donetsk – , this Wednesday (6:45 p.m.)

Barring an improbable scenario and in everyone's mind, Stade Brestois has already validated its ticket to continue its European adventure beyond the league phase. Two days remain to determine at what height he will finish it. With Shakhtar in his sights, and the fact that the appetite comes with eating, he would now not spit on a direct qualification in the round of 16.

Formulated in August, this objective would, at best, have made Éric Roy and his gang look like crazy people. At worst, for arrogant people. However, they are neither one nor the other, and are simply relying on their excellent record after six days (4 wins, one draw, one defeat) to fuel their ambition. Results which, as things currently stand, place them at the level of Arsenal or Inter Milan, and ahead of Bayern, Juve, Real or Manchester City. Did you say giants?

“The ambition to climb a further step”

Yet not one to boast, Éric Roy made no secret of it, in the wake of the victory against PSV (1-0). “It's not that I believe in the top 8 but, what is certain is that from the next match (against Shakhtar Donetsk), we will try to grab points to, why not, get the top 8 “. As this deadline approaches, he confirmed, this Tuesday, from the Veltins Arena in Gelsenkirchen where the Ukrainians have taken up residence, that “in the position we are in, having already qualified for the 16th, it is true that “we have the will and the ambition to climb a further step”.

A victory on Wednesday should not be enough

In addition to the sporting feat that it would imply, such a result would allow his team not to have to compete in the play-offs (11/12 and 18/19 February), sparing it two matches to play. Which, in the middle of a winter with a Dantesque calendar and with an infirmary just waiting to be empty, is not nothing. But in a new C1 formula where the unknown reigns supreme, the different calculations and projections appear like so many branches to cling to. When the statistician Opta gave Stade Brestois a 31% chance of finishing in the top 8 on the evening of its match against PSV, the mathematician Julien Guyon gave the Finistériens and before the start of this 7th day, no less than 60 % of finishing in the 8 in the event of a victory on Wednesday (a probability which would drop to 23% in the event of a draw and to 6% in the event of a defeat).

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Knowing that all the calculations, starting with those of UEFA, agree that it will take between 16 and 17 points to spend the winter warm. Figures which, for Brest, must therefore translate on the field into a victory and even a little bit more. A success of which we say that the Brestois would be well inspired to win against Donetsk, a team having not played since mid-December and having only four points in the Champions League (including three taken against the Young Boys of Berne, good last), rather than waiting until next week. “But even if we won tomorrow, we would not have the guarantee (of finishing in the 8),” continues Roy, lucidly. “And we still have to get a result against Real. This still tells you that we have a hell of a challenge ahead of us in this competition.” So close, so far…


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