Beijing could have a deployed atomic arsenal equivalent to that of the United States within a decade

The report published Wednesday, December 18 by the Pentagon demonstrates the extent to which Beijing is developing its military capabilities. China’s navy became the world’s largest with 370 combat ships and submarines last year, according to the document. . China has also invested heavily in shipbuilding over the past two decades, to the point where it can now build more ships in a month than the United States can in a year. .

If Washington maintains an advance in a certain number of areas, particularly in terms of personnel, the quantitative as well as qualitative gap is narrowing.

• Beijing now has a reserve of 1,300 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), 300 more than the previous year. These systems, with a range of 1,000 to 1,500 km, are capable of striking American and Japanese military targets in Okinawa Prefecture.
• With 550 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers, the Chinese army has capabilities superior to those of its American rival. The Defense Department estimates that Beijing will likely complete construction of its three new solid propellant silo fields in 2022.
• China is investing heavily in key areas such as informatization, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and cyberwarfare systems. The People’s Liberation Army thus aims to equip itself with new capabilities based on its vision of future conflicts: “intelligent war” (智能化战争) .

The most significant development quantified by the report concerns nuclear capabilities. Washington estimates that Beijing continues to develop its atomic arsenal, and to date possesses more than 600 nuclear warheads – compared to 500 last year, and 200 in 2019. The progression curve of the number of nuclear warheads suggests that the Chinese army could thus equaling the US military during the 2030 decade in terms of deployed warheads.

“Atomic parity” between Washington and Beijing would reverse the balance of power that has characterized the nuclear balance since the second half of the 20th century.

• The Department of Defense anticipates that China’s arsenal should exceed 1,000 operational warheads by 2030 before “continuing to increase its force” at least until 2035.
• The figure of 1,500 warheads by 2035, mentioned in the 2022 report, was however abandoned in this year’s edition. Last year, however, the Congressional Commission on U.S. Strategic Posture estimated that “at current rates, China will achieve approximate quantitative parity with the United States in terms of deployed nuclear warheads by the middle 2030s » .
• While most Chinese warheads are not deployed on launchers today, this situation may already be changing with a higher level of readiness as well as the emergence of an on-alert launch capability. . Of the more than 3,700 U.S. nuclear warheads, fewer than 1,800 are currently deployed.
• However, China should begin producing plutonium during this decade if it intends to continue expanding its atomic arsenal.

In addition to the development of nuclear capabilities, the report also points to Beijing’s development of its offensive and defensive capabilities aimed at exercising domination of cyberspace. The Chinese army is now capable of carrying out large-scale disruptive attacks, such as interrupting strategic American infrastructure networks for several weeks.