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Touted by some experts as the next dominant variant of Covid-19, XEC could be the source of a new wave of infections. Here’s what we know about it.
Called XEC, the new variant of Covid-19 was first identified in Germany in June 2024. Danger, progression, response to vaccines… The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) says it is closely monitoring the situation.
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Where does it come from?
According to Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in California (United States), a biomedical research center, this new variant of Covid-19 is “a hybrid of the KS.1.1 and KP.3.3 variants”, old sub-variants of BA.2.86, itself descended from Omicron.
How dangerous is it?
There is currently no data to directly assess immune evasion, transmissibility, severity or efficacy of the vaccine against severe forms of Covid-19 compared to other descendant lines of BA.2.86. Based on the data currently available, including its mutations, the European Health Authority estimates that XEC should have similar characteristics to its currently circulating cousins, no more, no less serious.
As a reminder, the different variants and sub-variants of Sars-Cov-2 are classified by group: VOC for variant of concern, VOI for variant to follow and VUM for “variant under surveillance”. XEC does not appear at this stage in any of these categories.
Where is it found?
XEC has gained a lot of ground since the beginning of the summer and could soon become the new dominant sub-variant in place of KP.3.1.1, the last hyper-infectious variant, currently dominant in Europe and the United States.
According to Mike Honey, a data scientist specializing in Covid, XEC has increased in Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France and the United States. According to the specialist, it is currently found in 27 countries on three continents. For its part, the ECDC emphasizes that to date, a very limited number of XEC detections have been reported in Europe.
What is his progress?
ECDC believes that it is currently too early to know whether XEC will continue to spread. And, at this stage, there is no evidence that the variant is increasing the prevalence of Covid-19 in the countries where it has been reported.
For his part, Dr Eric Topol estimated to Euronews that “XEC is only just beginning worldwide”. “It will take several weeks, a few months before it really settles in and starts to cause a wave,” he continued. “XEC is definitely taking things in hand. […] But it will take months before reaching high levels.”
Will the vaccines be effective?
The fact that vaccines have been updated for recent variants could help XEC, descended from older sub-variants, become dominant.
Thus, according to Professor François Balloux, director of the Institute of Genetics at University College London, interviewed by the BBC, XEC would have “a slight transmission advantage” compared to other variants. But the vaccines should nevertheless remain effective.
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