Can the debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris swing voters in the handful of states that could decide the winner of the presidential election? The two White House candidates are back on the hunt for those precious votes on Thursday.
After a brief truce to honor the memory of the victims of the September 11 attacks, the former Republican president will hold a campaign rally in Arizona early this afternoon.
This western American state was one of the most contested in the 2020 presidential election — Joe Biden won it by 10,000 times against Donald Trump — and promises an equally close result this year.
The Republican candidate is scheduled to deliver a speech focused on the economy from Tucson, a university town about 100 kilometres from the border with Mexico.
– 60 years of debates –
Her Democratic rival will be on the other side of the country at the same time, in North Carolina. The vice president is counting on the votes of African-Americans and young people, remotivated by her candidacy, to win against the Republican billionaire in this state bordering the Atlantic.
As in the two previous presidential elections, the 2024 election could be decided by a few thousand votes in certain strategic counties in six or seven pivotal states, due to the voting method, the election being by indirect universal suffrage.
It is therefore towards these states, spread across the country and including Arizona and North Carolina, that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will concentrate their campaign efforts and invest the bulk of their war chest.
The 50-year-old is particularly keen to capitalise on her debate on Tuesday against Donald Trump, which she dominated according to most commentators.
But can this confrontation, watched by more than 67 million viewers, really make a difference?
Although these televised events have been highlights of the electoral campaign for over 60 years, their impact on the vote often remains limited.
With one notable exception: the June debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which greatly precipitated the Democratic president’s withdrawal from the race – one of the greatest political upsets in modern history.
– “Short memory” –
“Voters’ memories are short,” Kyle Kondik, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, said in a note. The analyst said there is enough time between now and the Nov. 5 election “for the impact of the debate — if there is one — to fade.”
And according to the polls, a vast majority of voters have already chosen their side for the election. They are leaning equally towards the Democrat and the Republican, if we are to believe these opinion polls.
A new televised confrontation between the two presidential candidates cannot be ruled out, however: the Democratic candidate has challenged her Republican rival to debate a second time.
The tempestuous septuagenarian did not formally accept this proposal, initially assuring that he did not want to “replay the match”. Before suggesting that he could change his mind if this new duel were organized by Fox News, the favorite channel of the American right.
An exchange between their running mates is planned for October 1 in New York.
cjc/cha/lpa
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