History repeats itself. As in the spring, after the “budgetary accident” of 2023 and the brutal revision of the public deficit at the beginning of the year, the Senate Finance Committee is beginning the autopsy of public finances, which are decidedly in a very bad position. Still waiting for a government, essential to present a finance bill worthy of the name, parliamentarians have in their hands a new mass of documents from the Treasury and the tax administration to partly prepare the next budget discussion. The members of the Finance Committee formally took note of them on September 4.
Their general rapporteur, Jean-François Husson (ex-LR), and their president, Claude Raynal (PS) then described the overall picture to journalists. Planned at 4.4% of GDP when the budget was adopted last December, the estimate of the 2024 deficit then widened to 5.1% when the stability programme was completed in April. According to the latest budget documents transmitted by Bercy, it could widen to 5.6% at the end of the year, in the absence of corrective measures. The deterioration reaches “34 billion euros in seven months”, or one and a half times the security budget in France. A very bad effect at a time when France is facing an excessive deficit procedure in the eurozone.
“Without a crisis, the levels of deficits that we experienced during the health crisis”
In 2025, the deficit could even reach 6.2% of GDP. “We are approaching, without any external objective reason, without a crisis, the levels of deficits that we experienced during the health crisis. This is unacceptable and perhaps unbearable,” the general rapporteur told the press, describing the budgetary situation as “catastrophic” and “the exclusive responsibility of the executive.”
Worse, France may not be out of the woods yet. “These figures are perhaps still a little optimistic,” warned the senator from Meurthe-et-Moselle. The cause is risk factors that could still come to fruition by the end of the year.
The absence at this stage of new recovery measures, and above all, revenues that are worse than expected – as in 2023 – largely explain the worsening figures. In March, Bruno Le Maire spoke of an “exceptional” event for last year’s revenues. “There was nothing exceptional about this event, it is exactly the same thing that is happening for 2024”, incriminates the general rapporteur.
Savings that “were not documented and will not be realized”
At the end of April, during a session devoted to the stability programme, he had deeply questioned the credibility of the trajectory presented by the government. “I think that we were sold a budgetary situation that was never in line with reality. The trajectory was false,” he denounced. According to the General Directorate of the Treasury, the lack of implementation of the volumes of savings announced in the stability programme amounts to 57 billion euros in 2025. Based on the documents transmitted by Bercy, the senator concludes that the announcements of account recovery, particularly within the framework of the stability programme, “were not documented and will not be realized”.
Like his right-wing colleague, the socialist Claude Raynal also condemns the choices of the top of the State, which have not helped to plug the multiple holes in the budget. Having resigned since mid-July, the government can hardly take measures to control public spending. “The decision to dissolve the President of the Republic has deprived his government of any form of possible action. This dissolution is not for nothing in this deterioration,” he describes.
Another disastrous decision in the eyes of the Finance Committee executives: the absence of a corrective budget after the first air pocket observed in February. Only a decree canceling 10 billion euros had been signed. “Only a draft corrective finance bill would have made it possible to start straightening out the public accounts. The government made the conscious choice not to present one and therefore to let the public accounts deteriorate,” regrets the chairman of the committee.
The share due to local authorities in the widening of the deficit remains to be “confirmed”, according to senators
Another source of discontent among senators: the emphasis placed by the Minister of Economy and Finance and his Minister of Public Accounts on local authorities in their letter on Monday evening. The government has made “the extremely rapid increase in local authority spending” one of the main risks for 2024. Bercy estimates that local authorities alone could add €16 billion to the trajectory of public finances. “This figure needs to be confirmed,” replies Jean-François Husson. “We have a note from the Treasury, which indicates an additional expenditure of €5 billion and not €16 billion, compared to what was expected. We do not have more recent data at this stage.”
After having often deplored in the spring a “withholding” of information on the part of the government, the commission also notes that certain documents are missing, in particular the expenditure reviews, and a note on aid to businesses. “Some documents have not been transmitted, some are in the process of being transmitted.” Claude Raynal is especially offended by a significant delay in the transmission of an important note from the Treasury, dated July 17, and requested as early as July 18. “It is very regrettable that we cannot immediately have the requested notes.” “We have lost almost two months, it is better to have the information immediately, to work,” adds Jean-François Husson.
The fact that the ministers who resigned on 4 September will continue to put the patience of parliamentarians to the test, and they will reject any government that might be tempted to delay the submission of the finance bill by a few days. “We have a firm position. Stop this type of thinking,” says Claude Raynal angrily. In a month, difficult choices await Parliament. “We can sense that we are entering difficult times. This is not the time to give up,” says Jean-François Husson.
