Analysis of the vote for the National Rally during the last legislative elections shows that the latter is increasingly a vote of support for the classic far-right program on immigration and security, according to a note by Jean-Daniel Lévy, deputy director of Harris Interactive for the Jean Jaurès Foundation.
Having gone from 89 elected deputies in 2022 to 142 in 2024, the Le Pen party is the one whose electorate most (48%) claims to have voted by adhesion and the least (7%) by opposition, explains the political scientist based on a compilation of studies for different media.
According to him, the June-July electoral sequence “confirms” that “for many years now, there has been no question of talking about a sanction vote”.
RN voters are those “who most strongly indicate the desire for the candidate they voted for to be present in the second round, for the RN to achieve the highest possible score, for it to have an absolute majority in the Assembly,” he continues. And the least desire to prevent a candidate from being elected or a political party from obtaining a majority.
They are also the most convinced (94%) that the far-right party will be able to implement its programme if it comes to power.
From a sociological point of view, several elements have become salient during the three elections (European and early legislative): it is the 35-64 year olds (37%) and the over 65s (32%) who have changed their vote the most to turn towards the RN. Jean-Daniel Levy also observes “the porosity with the electorate of the classic right”.
The pollster evokes a “return to the fundamentals” of the party founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen, with immigration placed at the top of the list of motivations (69%), ahead of purchasing power (63%). And notes that his voters believe that the RN would be “better than the presidential majority and the NFP on central subjects: purchasing power, employment or even economic growth”.
He also notes that the RN approached the first round of the legislative elections in the “dynamic” of the European elections: 90% of those who voted for Jordan Bardella’s list voted for an RN candidate in the legislative elections, a higher proportion than that which prevailed for the candidates of the New Popular Front.
As for a “Bardella effect”, widely commented on, he believes that the figures temper it. Those under 25 actually place him at the top of their favorite political personality but… François Hollande is at the same level. The social network Tiktok, on which the president of the RN is very present, is a much lesser source of information than television. Finally, notes Jean-Daniel Levy, CNews only comes in 5th position among the television channels watched by Front National voters.
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