60 days after the second round of early legislative elections, 59 days after Gabriel Attal resigned and 51 days after the President of the Republic accepted it, France has a new Prime Minister. Emmanuel Macron asked LR Michel Barnier, former minister of Édouard Balladur, Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, on Thursday, September 5, to “form a unifying government in the service of the country.”
This appointment comes after weeks of consultations, in a context of political fragmentation unprecedented under the Fifth Republic, a consequence of the dissolution initiated by the head of state in June. “In accordance with his constitutional duty, the president has ensured that the prime minister and the future government would meet the conditions to be as stable as possible and give themselves the chance to unite as broadly as possible,” the Elysée Palace said.
At 73, Michel Barnier becomes the oldest Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic. Ironically, he is the representative of a political family that has always refused to ally itself with the presidential camp and that came fourth in the legislative elections, behind the National Rally, the presidential bloc and the New Popular Front alliance.
The anger of the left
“I think we need to change our perspective when interpreting this election. When we don’t have a clear majority, we need to look at what has been done in the past or among our European neighbours. It is not insignificant to seek out a figure of consensus in pivotal parties. For the rest, it is the composition of the government that will allow us to see how the major political balances are respected,” observes political scientist Olivier Rouquan, associate professor and researcher at the Centre for Studies and Research in Administrative and Political Sciences (Cersa) in Paris.
Conversely, for Virginie Martin, political scientist and professor-researcher at Kedge Business School, the President of the Republic “is making a mistake by downplaying the victory of the New Popular Front by the Republican barrier and the lack of a majority”. “It would have been necessary to choose a personality who came from this melting pot”, believes the political scientist, while Bernard Cazeneuve, former minister of François Hollande, has long been cited as one of the favorites for Matignon. A hypothesis that would have embarrassed the left, at least the PS, faced with a former socialist very critical of the rapprochement with France Insoumise.
“Clearly, the arrival of Michel Barnier at Matignon will allow the left bloc to preserve its unity,” notes Rémi Lefebvre, professor of political science at the University of Lille. “Now, I can’t see the NFP not being in the opposition,” smiles Olivier Rouquan.
“With Michel Barnier, Emmanuel Macron is giving Jean-Luc Mélenchon a huge gift. This nomination allows him to cry out against the denial of democracy, it serves his storytelling and it opens up a huge political space for the left for 2027,” says Virginie Martin. Shortly after the announcement of Michel Barnier’s nomination, the founder of LFI spoke out to accuse the president of “stealing” the election from the French. “We are entering a regime crisis,” declared Olivier Faure, First Secretary of the PS, at the same time. In a press release posted on the social network X, the pink party has already announced that it wants to censor Michel Barnier’s future government.
The RN’s leniency in the face of a “traditionalist personality, quite tough on immigration and security issues”
A priori, Michel Barnier should be able to maintain himself, at least in the short term, thanks to the support of the central bloc and the right, but also to the extent that the National Rally will not file a motion of censure on his behalf alone. “He seems at least to meet the first criterion that we have requested, that of a man respectful of the different political parties and capable of addressing the National Rally which is the first group in the National Assembly,” reacted Marine Le Pen on LCI.
“Michel Barnier is a bit like the personality that we go to when we don’t know what to do anymore. In the media, he has an image of a wise and neutral man, we associate him with the Brexit negotiations and the organization of the Albertville Olympic Games. But he is someone who has very traditionalist positions, who is quite tough on immigration and security issues, ultimately a sort of Fillonist who doesn’t say his name, which forces Marine Le Pen to a certain objectivity,” analyzes Virginie Martin. “Michel Barnier has a Macronist side because of his European record, but the Michel Barnier of the 2021 primary was very right-wing,” adds Rémi Lefebvre.
A negotiation with the RN?
“What is striking is that Emmanuel Macron is putting the institutional stability that he invoked to reject Lucie Castets’ candidacy at the mercy of the RN. We are faced with a double denial of democracy, vis-à-vis the left, but also vis-à-vis the Republican Front. It is obvious that the head of state negotiated a form of leniency with Marine Le Pen’s party. From now on, we will have to spare them,” continues Rémi Lefebvre. “We are going to live under the thumb of the RN for the next few months but, at some point or another, they will end up censoring Barnier to reposition themselves with a view to 2027.”
The presidential bloc faced with a fait accompli
“We can see that Emmanuel Macron wanted to preserve his record. With Michel Barnier, he doesn’t have to worry too much about Europe, the budget and pension reform” that the left had condemned, points out Olivier Rouquan. For this political scientist, there is no question of talking about “cohabitation”, even if “Michel Barnier can be credited with a certain authority that excludes the term collaborator”. However, how will this nomination be received by Renaissance and its allies MoDem and Horizons, who have been increasingly critical of the head of state since the dissolution?
“Certain issues, around social issues or immigration, could lead to reorganizations within the presidential bloc,” predicts Olivier Rouquan. “If Michel Barnier applies a policy of cuts in public services, refuses tax justice or intends to impose the sovereign measures of the LR (minimum sentences, end of the minority excuse, return of the censored measures of the immigration law), he will not have my support,” warns on Twitter the deputy Sacha Houlié, former president of the Laws Commission, who has distanced himself from the former majority.
“The nomination of Michel Barnier remains for the Macronists the least bad news compared to the Cazeneuve hypothesis,” believes Virginie Martin.
The right at the time of choices
On the right, the nomination of Michel Barnier also shakes things up. The Republicans have so far refused to ally with the presidential camp, relying on the legislative pact they presented at the beginning of the summer. But the nomination of one of their own, likely to take up some of the reforms they defend, reshuffles the cards.
“On the substance, particularly the question of public policies, Emmanuel Macron and LR have continued to move closer together since 2019. The composition of the government will be decisive, especially if Michel Barnier appoints LR figures. The right is keeping in mind the prospect of 2027, but it is certain that the question of support or participation will arise among certain figures,” summarizes Olivier Rouquan. For Virginie Martin, “it would be politically complicated for LR to continue to present itself as a party of government… and to miss such an opportunity.”
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