Predictability remains very limited for this month of September due to the dispersion of numerical weather models. This is a fairly typical situation for the inter-seasons where the action centers are not yet well calibrated. Nevertheless, the predominant weather scenario envisages a clear cooling in the coming week, before returning to normal conditions for the rest of September. Rainfall is expected to be plentiful across the country, which is good news for the start of the water recharge season.
Week of September 9 to 15: rainy and very cool
The digital models have changed the scenario and now envisage the establishment of cool and rainy weather with rainy disturbances accompanied by a west to northwest wind. This will then be the first autumn blow of the season. The mistral and the tramontane will chase away the Mediterranean storms, but disturbances will circulate over three quarters of the country. With the drop in temperatures, which will then be 3°C below average, the first snows will temporarily whiten the massifs from 1500 to 1700 m altitude.
Week of September 16-22: classic north-south gradient, warmer
Around mid-September, mixed weather could set in with variable weather conditions in the northern half, while calm could return to the south. Temperatures will be oriented upwards, and would be seasonal, with a usual north-south gradient. In this warmer context, the risk of storms will nevertheless remain in a southern third, particularly on the reliefs. This regional development will have to be monitored closely.
Week of September 23 to 29: beautiful warm weather
As already anticipated in our previous bulletin, the weather could become warm and anticyclonic again over France, with the establishment of a southerly flow. This overall trend seems quite reliable finally.
Week of September 30 to October 6: towards lasting anticyclonic weather?
Anticyclonic conditions, with mostly good weather, could continue for a fairly long time, opening the prospect of a dry and mild October.
Next update: every Thursday from 5 p.m.
- La Chaîne Météo
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