Why Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin Are Rising Today

The cryptocurrency market is moving nicely higher Wednesday, appreciating 1.2% over the prior 24 hours as of 1:15 p.m. ET, as Bitcoin (BTC -0.20%), Ethereum (ETH -0.39%)and Dogecoin (DOGE 0.37%) each make nice moves higher. Given the aggregate market capitalizations of those three digital assets, any sort of synchronized move higher among them is likely to drive the whole crypto market higher. And that appears to be the case: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin rose by 1%, 1.1%, and 0.8%, respectively, over that 24-hour period.

Importantly, these top cryptos staged impressive recoveries from today’s 24-hour lows, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin previously down 5.1%, 7.5%, and 6.5%, respectively, at their daily lows. Their earlier declines appear to be due to a rotation out of risk assets, with the broader technology sector dropping significantly yesterday as a result of weak macro data and an Nvidia probe, before recovering today. This price action bled into other higher-risk asset classes such as crypto, with today’s broader recovery suggesting investors are now largely looking for buying opportunities in the market.

These moves are noteworthy considering that September has historically been a weak month for digital assets overall, and the fund flows to Bitcoin and Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been flat or negative once again over the past week. In fact, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows for four consecutive trading days, suggesting some investors are positioning themselves for a period of weakness in risk assets.

So, what might investors be considering now when it comes to these top tokens?

A reversal, or a dead cat bounce?

Since Bitcoin hit its last all-time high of more than $73,000 per token in March, it’s been rough sledding for the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency. It has given up more than 20% of its value from its peak and now trades around $58,000. Ethereum, the second-largest digital asset in the world, has seen similar price performance, and Dogecoin has mirrored them both, only in more volatile fashion.

Broader crypto market data, such as the aforementioned outflows from spot ETFs, can provide hints about how investors may be thinking about digital assets at a given time. But while Wednesday’s rise is certainly nice for those who hold crypto, it’s not a big enough move to necessarily suggest that some sort of fundamental thesis has changed when it comes to these top tokens.

Some investors may be looking at this blip higher as an opportunity to take profits, and reorient their portfolios toward more defensive investments. A rotation out of high-growth tech stocks (such as Nvidia) in recent days and toward small-cap to mid-cap growth stocks could continue for some time. And while Bitcoin and Ethereum are certainly among the largest (but also most defensive) digital assets out there, any sort of risk asset repositioning could result in a continuation of a broadly bearish trend for these three coins.

Macro risks remain high

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Wednesday, and the revised data from earlier periods suggest that macroeconomic activity may be slowing faster than many had previously thought. And while betting markets are now pricing in greater chances of more (and larger) interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, crypto experts remain mixed as to how such cuts may impact large cryptocurrencies.

I’m of the view that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin are likely to remain top of mind for most investors looking at the sector, and should be considered risk proxies (for good or ill) by investors. As such, any sort of broader rotations are likely to impact these tokens, with Dogecoin certainly holding the potential for even greater volatility in either direction.

My view continues to be that Bitcoin and Dogecoin likely remain solid long-term bets, but that Dogecoin’s volatile profile is really only suited to those with the highest of risk tolerances. I also think many traders and shorter-term investors will be waiting for a sustained period of gains before jumping in. Thus, more downside could be ahead for these top projects — but for long-term investors, that could spell an opportunity to dollar-cost average into such assets at more reasonable prices over time.