The situation looks positive for these three sectors, boosted by the growth prospects of the American economy and the all-out deregulation policies that the Trump administration plans to implement.
2025 will be a year of disruption. As the holiday break subsides and the economy returns to cruising speed, many eyes are directed towards the United States, where Donald Trump is beginning a second term which promises to be more disruptive than the first, with the president having this time to surround himself with followers likely to realize his political vision, a curious mix of populism and of techno-libertarianisme.
Beyond Trump, America remains the engine of the West, with growth higher than that of most developed economies. Hence the importance of closely following what is happening there to take the pulse of the markets. As the new administration prepares to adopt its first measures, three sectors are on track to do well in 2025: banking, energy and consumer goods.
Banking and finance driven by falling interest rates
While inflationary risks are receding in most Western countries, central banks are expected to ease pressure in this regard, which is good news for the banking industry. “Monetary policy appears to be easing, in the United States and elsewhere, which means lower interest rates», Notes Lawrence J. White, professor of economics at the Sterns School of Business at New York University.
Other good news for the financial industry: the deregulatory and “business friendly” approach of the Trump 2.0 administration. In the banking sector, it should notably result in a delay and relaxation of Basel III Endgame, the set of rules aimed at completing and strengthening the Basel III regulatory framework. This was adopted following the 2009 financial crisis to improve the resilience of the banking sector. Basel III Endgame, whose recommendations the Fed plans to apply in the United States, has been criticized by several large banks (the text concerns those holding more than $100 billion in assets).
They denounce in particular a section aimed at increasing the quantity of capital that banks will be required to hold, in order to prevent them from finding themselves bankrupt in the event of a panic. A fear rekindled by the fall of several American banks in early 2023, including that of Silicon Valley Bank. The banks believe that they are sufficiently capitalized. “It is very likely that the new Trump administration will relax the regulations provided for by Basel III Endgame, and in particular that it will look for a way to lower regulatory capital requirements. However, these represent a significant cost for the big banks, which would therefore welcome this news with enthusiasm», notes Lawrence J. White. JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi Banks, BNP Paribas and others can put the champagne on ice in this context.
According to the economist, Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy, which generates instability, nevertheless constitutes a risk for banks. As well as the pressure it could put on the Fed to lower interest rates faster than it wants, which could lead to a resumption of inflation, which is never in the interest of the banking sector.
An energy sector celebrating under Trump 2.0
Donald Trump has never hidden his affection for fossil fuels. During the presidential campaign, he promised the oil industry to drill as it saw fit, as well as to promote “energy domination» of the United States and the construction of gas pipelines and refineries. While his predecessor, Joe Biden, was not an enemy of fossil fuels (US oil production is currently at an all-time high), he also made efforts to encourage US industry to convert to clean energy, notably through the Inflation Reduction Act. Trump, on the contrary, wants to maximize energy production, whether fossil or not.
The Republican president has already taken care to surround himself with personalities close to the fossil fuel industry. Chris Wright, head of an American fracking giant, is to lead the Department of Energy, while Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota and staunch defender of fossil fuels, is to occupy the position of “Tsar of energy” (architect of the energy policy of the future administration). “Trump has taken care to surround himself with competent individuals who have a good understanding of the workings of the energy industry and the functioning of the markets», Notes Frank Maisano, energy expert at Bracewell, a Texas law firm specializing in energy issues.
-Among the measures that could delight the energy giants such as ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, TotalEnergies and Chevron, the Trump 2.0 administration has notably planned a wave of deregulation. The new president thus promised to remove a moratorium on the allocation of permits for liquefied gas projects intended for export, put in place by Joe Biden. A tariff on methane, included in the Inflation Reduction Act, could also be removed.
Another avenue that the new government should explore: the removal of administrative obstacles to the implementation of new energy projects, by accelerating the allocation of permits. “Reform at this level is probably the most important action likely to give a boost to the industry: many projects are struggling to get off the ground because they are unable to obtain the appropriate authorizations“, says Frank Maisano.
Finally, the Trump administration is promising to authorize more fossil fuel projects on federally owned lands, which represent nearly 30% of the land area of the United States.
Current consumption driven by an American economy which remains in great shape
Standards & Poor forecasts 2.7% growth in the United States next year: it is therefore very likely that the country will remain the locomotive of the Western bloc, while forecast growth in the euro zone should remain modest. Growth driven by a dynamic labor market and booming consumption.
«Consumer spending is expected to remain the core of growth, supported by rising real incomes, thanks to a strong labor market. L’wealth effect should provide an extra boost“, notes David Mericle, economist at Goldman Sachs Research, in a study on the American economy in 2025. A trend likely to benefit companies like Amazon, Nike or even Starbucks, to which consumers turn when they have excess cash to spend.
Certain policies included in Donald Trump’s program could give even more purchasing power to American consumers, therefore strengthening current consumer spending. An energy abundance policy would, for example, contribute to lowering household energy bills and therefore strengthening their purchasing power. Trump also promised to extend the tax cuts implemented during his first term, set to expire in 2026 (a usual process in the United States, where most budget measures have an expiration date), and even announced additional cuts, another measure likely to boost consumption.
However, the new presidency also carries risks for consumption. Donald Trump’s desire to impose additional tariffs of at least 10% on all imported products constitutes the main danger, according to the Goldman Sachs study, likely to revive inflation and slow down the economy. “The biggest risk lies in generalized customs tariffs, which would severely hamper growth“, we read in the report.
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