Donald Trump will be sworn in this Monday. According to rumor, it won’t be long before he makes major moves. He could sign a hundred presidential decrees in his first hour.
Here’s what his presidency could mean for us.
1. His tariffs would harm the economy and jobs. It has been said and repeated for a month that Canada would be plunged into recession immediately. According to François Legault, at least 100,000 jobs are at stake in Quebec.
2. Few companies will invest with us. Hit by the 25%, some companies will choose to open the next factory on American soil. Others will cancel their investments due to the climate of uncertainty. Who will invest in Canada in the next two years?
3. The Canadian dollar will continue to weaken. Desjardins economists are even talking about a dollar at US$0.65. Trump’s measures risk maintaining inflation in the United States. Their interest rates will remain high while they fall in Canada. This interest rate gap, combined with a weakened Canadian economy, will put negative pressure on our currency.
4. Thousands of migrants could show up at the border. Everything indicates that President Trump will launch his deportation operation with a decree on Monday. We have every reason to believe that of the millions of immigrants targeted, a certain number will see illegal entry into Canada as the least worst solution.
5. Canada will invest in border surveillance. Illegal migrants or fentanyl from Canada, Trump doesn’t want any more. Even if the problem is much less than at the Mexican border, Canada will finally have to show its seriousness in managing what happens there.
-6. Our military spending will have to increase significantly. We neglected or pushed it away for years. Now Canada is being forced to do so, to fulfill our NATO obligations and to stop Trump’s wrath. In any case, in the new context of mistrust, can we still rely 100% on the United States for our defense?
7. Our governments will increase their deficits. Border, army, all this will be expensive. And it will be necessary to help businesses and support the newly unemployed if the tariffs cause a recession. Perhaps major emergency programs like those for the pandemic, but smaller. All this while money will return more slowly to the coffers.
8. Sovereignty will lose some feathers. Faced with the American threat, Quebecers will have the reflex to prefer to be part of a larger whole. To the great displeasure of the Parti Québécois, the polls, which are already not very encouraging for the sovereignist option, risk being even weaker. Probably a temporary phenomenon.
9. Diseases like measles will continue to make a comeback. Trump will take actions to please his anti-vaccine clientele. The nomination of Robert F. Kennedy goes in the same direction. Measles outbreaks making the news? Unfortunately, the more vaccination rates fall, the more we will see the resurgence of infectious diseases that we thought were eradicated.
10. The Canada–United States relationship will be transformed for a time. Allied countries, friends, good neighbors, the language is changing. Forget the era of Mulroney-Reagan complicity, with a vision of common interests and win-win agreements. Trump’s escapades will leave their mark.
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