Nuclear-generated electricity will reach a record level in 2025, representing just under 10% of global production, and its geographic center is shifting towards China to the detriment of old nuclear countries like the United States. or France, says the International Energy Agency.
More than 70 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity is being built around the world, representing one of the highest levels in the last 30 years, the IEA says in a report titled “The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Power”. ‘nuclear energy”.
The agency indicates that nuclear electricity production amounted to 2742 TWh in 2023 and is expected to be 2843 TWh in 2024. For 2025, it is expected to reach around 2900 TWh.
Use of electricity on the rise
This growth is driven by the general use of electricity, from industry and air conditioning to electric vehicles and data centers, in a context of the rise of artificial intelligence, underlines the IEA.
In 2023, more than 410 reactors were operating in more than 30 countries. “We are entering a new era for nuclear energy,” says Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA. “This year, 2025, nuclear electricity production will be the highest in history.”
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After years of decline following the Fukushima accident in 2011 in Japan, caused by a tsunami, this recovery is driven by China. Of the 52 reactors whose construction has started around the world since 2017, 25 are of Chinese design.
Europe and the United States are marking time
On the other hand, countries like the United States or France are marking time due to the high costs of developing power plants. “The global geography of the nuclear industry is changing,” underlines Fatih Birol, who recalls that “since 1970, the global nuclear industry was led by the United States and Europe.”
In Europe, 35% of electricity came from nuclear power in the 1990s compared to less than 25% today and in ten years, this will be less than 15%. The observation is similar in the United States.
“There is underperformance of the nuclear industry in these countries,” explains the head of the IEA. “Projects are on average seven years behind schedule and costs are 2.5 times higher than originally planned. In five years, China will overtake the United States and the European Union and become the world’s leading nuclear power .”
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Appearance of small modular reactors
The other subject concerns the sector’s sources of supply, which are too concentrated. More than 99% of enrichment capacities are today held by four companies: the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC, 15%), the Russian Rosatom (40%), Urenco (a British-German-Dutch consortium, 33% ) and the French Orano (12%).
“Russia alone represents 40% of the world’s enrichment capacity, which constitutes a significant challenge,” warns Fatih Birol.
The nuclear sector is also evolving with the appearance of small modular reactors (SMR), intended to electrify industrial sites or produce heat.
Since 1971, nuclear power has avoided 72 gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by avoiding the use of coal, natural gas or oil, according to the IEA.
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