For 2025, the Banque de France forecasts modest growth of 0.9%, a downward revision compared to forecasts of 1.2% established in September 2024. François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the institution, recalled that this stability, although fragile, is the result of rigorous public policies and the resilience of certain key sectors.
The end of 2024 was marked by the post-Olympics effect, which weighed on quarterly growth, reduced to zero level. While the event briefly boosted sectors like hotels and restaurants, this momentum was followed by a general slowdown. Industries such as automobiles and textiles continue to suffer from prolonged decline, while construction has seen its order books shrink.
On the other hand, certain strategic sectors such as aeronautics and agri-food have demonstrated resilience, helping to cushion the overall impact. These disparities highlight a French economy in transition, seeking to adapt to a global environment marked by geopolitical tensions and volatility in commodity prices.
Public deficit and growth, a difficult balance to maintain
One of the main challenges for 2025 remains the management of the public deficit. With an ambitious target of 5% of GDP, France seeks to contain its debt while maintaining a sufficient level of investment to stimulate growth. This situation creates tensions between supporters of fiscal austerity, who consider rigorous control of spending essential, and those who fear that excessive tightening will further slow down the economy.
François Villeroy de Galhau defended a balanced approach on Monday January 12 on LCI, stressing that effective debt control is necessary to restore market and investor confidence. However, this strategy could limit the government's ability to support certain sectors in difficulty, adding pressure on businesses and households.
Uncertain international prospects
The Banque de France's forecasts must also be placed in a complex global context. The fragility of international demand, combined with persistent geopolitical tensions, is weighing on French exports. This climate of uncertainty constitutes a major obstacle to economic expansion, particularly for industries heavily dependent on foreign markets.
Furthermore, tensions on supply chains and rising production costs add to the challenges, forcing companies to review their strategies to remain competitive. The Banque de France insists on the need for coherent budgetary policies, combined with targeted incentives to stimulate sectors in difficulty and support investment.
A reaction? Leave a comment
Did you like this article? Subscribe to our free Newsletter for engaging articles, exclusive content and the latest news.
Related News :