Bitcoin – Imminent tidal wave

Bitcoin grew 120% in 2024, significantly outperforming other major asset classes. 2025 promises to be an equally exceptional year.

2025, the pivotal year?

This is the second year in a row that it has outperformed the S&P 500 (25%) and the Nasdaq (29%). It had already soared by 157% in 2023, compared to 26% for the S&P 500 and 45% for the Nasdaq. US stocks are undeniably very dynamic, but their returns still pale in comparison to those of bitcoin. This 120% places bitcoin 8th in the annual ranking, behind Microstrategy, Nvidia and Palantir.

This annual return is lower than that of the third years of the three previous cycles (189%, 124%, 308%). The cycles are four years, punctuated by halvings. Nothing abnormal here, the heavier the bitcoin will be, the more the rate of appreciation will slow down, it’s mathematical.

2024 was a good year thanks to ETFs and the electoral victory of pro-bitcoin candidate Donald Trump. The Republicans won everything. White House, Senate and House of Representatives. It is therefore not surprising that bitcoin appreciated by 47% in the fourth quarter.

Regarding ETFs, note that they absorbed $16.5 billion during this quarter. Knowing that 15.8 billion went to BlackRock and 1.9 billion to Fidelity, the other ETFs share the crumbs.

Net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs were 44 billion globally for the whole of 2024. This is much, much more than for gold-backed ETFs which have stood still.

1 000 000 bitcoins

The American election was undoubtedly the highlight of 2024. Donald Trump is explicitly in favor of bitcoin as are many members of his government.

Starting with Elon Musk or even Robert Kennedy who, like Senator Cynthia Lummis, proposes to accumulate a million bitcoins. Michael Saylor’s recent visit to Donald Trump’s Florida property also bodes well.

Some ministries are still vacant, but the ones that matter (Treasury, SEC, Commerce, Health, White House Advisors, Vice President) all belong to pro-bitcoin. Bodes well for appointments at the CFTC, OCC and FDIC.

The inauguration will take place in ten short days, and even if a meeting with Vladimir Putin will be the priority, it is rumored that the American strategic reserve of bitcoins will quickly be decreed.

However, an executive order can be easily revoked by the next president. A law such as the BITCOIN Act carried by Senator Lummis would be a more permanent solution. It will then have to go through Congress, but again, the lights are green according to Anthony Scaramucci.

The billionaire believes there is a majority in the Senate in favor of a reserve of 750,000 BTC. The appointment of Senator Tim Scott as head of the Senate Banking Committee bodes well:

In any case, a decree would already eliminate the risk of the government selling the 198,100 BTC ($18 billion), without creating additional demand. Let us recall in passing that of this grand total, 119,754 BTC actually belong to the exchange platform Bitfinex, the sister company of the stablecoin Tether.

The ideal scenario would be for the US Congress to authorize the purchase of one million bitcoins. Nations around the world will then do the same. The lines already seem to be moving in Germany:

Multinationals are taking the plunge

MicroStrategy is and will also be a key driver of bitcoin’s rise. Michael Saylor announced in the fourth quarter that he would raise $42 billion to acquire more.

And while it was initially planned to acquire the equivalent of $10 billion in 2025, Microstrategy has already issued $16 billion worth of shares in the fourth quarter of 2024. It seems that Michael Saylor is well informed and that he decided to act before the American government…

Other multinationals have joined the dance. In total, seventy publicly traded companies now hold nearly $56 billion in bitcoins (including $42 billion for Microstrategy). These companies are MercadoLibre, Nexon, Genius Group, Semler Scientific, Metaplanet, etc.

This second wave of adoption by companies after that of 2021 (Tesla, Block, etc.) is gaining more and more momentum. And after Microsoft, it is now Meta which is under pressure to adopt the same strategy.

And since we are talking about institutions, note that FTX creditors should receive $16 billion in cash (and not in bitcoins) by the beginning of March. The bankruptcy plan came into effect on January 3 and the lawyers in charge of the file agreed to reimburse creditors within 60 days, i.e. March 4.

This 16 billion represents as much as the total net inflows into ETFs during the fourth quarter. However, there is a good chance that a substantial part of this money will be immediately converted into bitcoins.

Don’t miss our article: Bitcoin, what is the rational objective for 2025?