Ct is the surprise of the first days of 2025 on the financial markets: a sudden and marked rise in government bond yields on three of the main world markets, the American, the British and the euro zone, which could complicate, in the coming months, the already arduous task of central banks and governments.
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The yield on ten-year American Treasury bonds reached 4.7% on Wednesday, January 8, its highest level since October 2023. Its French equivalent, the ten-year OAT rate, exceeded 3.4%, at -above the peak reached in July 2024 shortly after the dissolution of the National Assembly. But it was on the British debt market that tensions were greatest: the yield on ten-year bonds peaked at 4.82%, its highest level since 2008, reviving memories of the bond storm of October 2022 triggered by announcements of unfunded tax cuts from Liz Truss’s government and which resulted in her resignation.
These movements are all the more unusual since the major central banks have opened, in 2024, a new cycle of lowering key interest rates. “We are witnessing a global movement resulting from a bundle of factors that accumulate”summarizes Guillaume Rigeade, bond manager at Carmignac.
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