The average annual consumer price index (CPI) remains far from the figures of the last three years according to the HCP since it reached 1% for the first eleven months of the year 2024, according to the latest information note of the High Commission for Planning. For its part, inflation continues to evolve at moderate levels. However, it is felt differently depending on the socioeconomic income of households and social strata.
From 1.4% in 2021 to 6.6% in 2022, then 6.1% in 2023, the average annual consumer price index (CPI) remains far from the figures of the last three years according to the High Commission for plan (HCP). Indeed, the latest information note from the HCP indicates that the CPI reached 1% at the end of the first eleven months of the year 2024, according to the latest information note from the High Commission for Planning. It appears that inflation continues to evolve at moderate levels, although it is felt differently depending on the socio-economic income of households depending on social strata.
On this register, according to Bank Al-Maghrib, this year should end with inflation of around 1%. Inflation which should be, still according to central bank projections, at 2.4% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. Likewise, its underlying component, which reflects the fundamental trend in prices, should continue its deceleration from 5.6% in 2023 to 2.1% this year, then to 2% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026.
Returning to the annual evolution of the CPI for the month of November 2024, the cumulative evolution during the first eleven of the year 2024 essentially reflects the 1.3% increase in the price of non-food products, mainly restaurants and hotels, accommodation, water, electricity and other fuels in addition to clothing and footwear. Regarding food products with volatile prices, the increase went from 128.7 points to 129.6 points in the first 11 months of 2023 and those of 2024.
Core inflation up 2.6% year-on-year
Regarding the monthly evolution, the CPI experienced, during the month of November 2024, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the previous month. This variation is the result of the 0.4% drop in the food products index and the stagnation of the non-food products index. The declines in food products observed between October and November 2024 mainly concern “Fruits” with 5.3%, “Vegetables” with 1.1%, “Fish and seafood” with 0.8% and “Water minerals, refreshing drinks, fruit and vegetable juices” with 0.6%.
On the other hand, prices increased by 1.3% for “Oils and fats”, by 1.1% for the “Milk, cheese and eggs” category and by 0.5% for “Coffee, tea and cocoa” . For non-food products, the drop mainly concerned the prices of “Fuels” with 1.5%. The largest declines in the CPI were recorded in Al Hoceima with 0.9%, in Safi with 0.8%, in Beni-Mellal and Errachidia with 0.7%, in Tétouan, Tangier and Settat with 0. 6%, in Marrakech with 0.4%, in Oujda with 0.3%, in Kénitra with 0.2% and in Casablanca and Meknes with 0.1%.
On the other hand, increases were recorded in Laâyoune and Dakhla with 0.5% and in Agadir and Fez with 0.3%. Compared to the same month of the previous year, the CPI recorded an increase of 0.8% during the month of November 2024, a consequence of the increase in the food products index of 0.8% and that of non-food products by 0.7%.
For non-food products, variations range from a drop of 3.8% for “Transport” to an increase of 3.6% for the “Housing, water, gas, electricity and other fuels” category.
Under these conditions, the underlying inflation indicator, which excludes products with volatile prices and products with public prices, would have experienced an increase of 0.2% during the month of November 2024 compared to the month of October 2024 and 2.6% compared to November 2023.
Yassine Saber / ECO Inspirations
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