With a bank liquidity deficit reaching -138.9 billion dirhams and notable adjustments to interest rates, the money market anticipated the repercussions of the recent reduction in the key rate. Between limited raisings on the primary market and correction of yields on the secondary market, current conditions lay the foundations for an expected stabilization in 2025.
During the past week, the average bank liquidity deficit increased by 2.4%, reaching -138.9 billion dirhams (billion dirhams). At the same time, 7-day advances allocated by Bank Al-Maghrib increased by 1.17 billion, standing at 63.5 billion dirhams. This situation reflects persistent pressure on the banking system, despite intervention by the Central Bank to stabilize liquidity.
Developments in TMP and MONIA
The impact of the reduction in the key rate of 25 basis points (pbs), recorded last Tuesday during the Quarterly Council of Bank Al-Maghrib, was felt on interbank interest rates. Subsequently, the Weighted Average Rate (TMP) fell to 2.50%, while the MONIA rate (Moroccan overnight index average) decreased to 2.44%. These adjustments reflect an adaptation of the money market to BAM's guidelines.
Limited lifts and concentration on the primary market
In addition, on the primary market, the Treasury carried out raisings totaling 500 million dirhams (MDH), divided between a 13-week line (limit rate of 2.280%) and a 2-year line (limit rate of 2.625% ). These operations led to a reduction in primary rates of, respectively, 11 bps and 6.4 bps, accentuated by the reduction in the key rate.
Generalized drop in rates in the secondary market
The secondary market also recorded a downward trend, with declines oscillating between 23.8 bps on the 13-week line and 8.2 bps on long maturities of 20 years. This correction reflects the gradual adjustment of yields to the new monetary situation. Current secondary rates are now approaching their equilibrium level, according to BKGR analysts.
Towards stabilization in 2025? The outlook for the first months of 2025 remains dependent on several factors, including the Treasury's financing needs and the timing of possible international issues.
In this context, BKGR anticipates continued adjustments in the bond markets, with a gradual return to rate stability. Recent developments reflect a salutary correction on the money and bond markets, after periods of uncertainty. BAM's proactive strategy, combined with prudent management of Treasury raisings, appears to lay the foundations for a more balanced environment for investors in 2025.
Sanae Raqui / ECO Inspirations
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