The recently released report, “Coal 2024 – Analysis and Forecast to 2027” from the International Energy Agency (IEA), explores the complex dynamics of coal in a world facing growing energy challenges. Although global ambitions are moving towards an energy transition, coal remains a key source to meet electricity demand, particularly in emerging economies.
In Africa, coal consumption is experiencing moderate growth, driven mainly by South Africa, which faces strategic choices between extending the life of its coal-fired power plants or accelerating their transition. Furthermore, Morocco is beginning a modest reduction in its dependence on coal thanks to a rise in renewable energy.
The report also highlights the growing impact of coal in specific industrial sectors, such as steel in Zimbabwe, while citing limitations related to new infrastructure in Zambia. Despite some progress toward sustainable alternatives, coal continues to play a dominant role in several regions, reflecting a delicate balance between economic development and environmental imperatives.
South Africa: coal, a controversial pillar
South Africa, the main driver of coal consumption in Africa, remains faced with a major energy dilemma. In 2024, coal demand on the continent is expected to reach 191 million tonnes (Mt), marking an increase of 6 Mt from the previous year. This increase is mainly attributable to the improved performance of coal-fired power plants operated by Eskom, the South African energy giant.
With an overwhelming 86% share of continental consumption in 2023, South Africa will further intensify its use of coal, reaching 165 Mt in 2024. A slight economic recovery and reduced power cuts (load shedding) are expected to boost this request. Despite efforts to increase nuclear production (+50%) and double that of renewable energies, the continued growth in electricity demand will pave the way for an additional 14 TWh generated from coal within three years.
Despite commitments to the energy transition, three coal-fired power plants, initially promised to close, will continue to operate until 2030. As a result, South African coal consumption for electricity generation is expected to reach 124 Mt by 2027. The future of the sector will strongly depend on political choices: maintain and modernize these aging power plants or accelerate their withdrawal to favor less polluting energies.
Morocco: towards a modest reduction in coal
Africa's second largest coal consumer, Morocco shows a different trajectory. The Kingdom, which uses coal exclusively for electricity production, will see its demand decline slightly, from 9.7 Mt in 2024 to 9.0 Mt in 2027. This drop is mainly due to the integration of 6 TWh of additional renewable capacity, exceeding a increase in overall demand of 4 TWh.
This dynamic confirms Moroccan ambitions for a controlled energy transition. The gradual addition of renewable energy sources reduces reliance on fossil fuels, although coal remains a key component of today's electricity infrastructure.
Zimbabwe, driven by the start-up of a steelworks by the Chinese group Tsingshan in March 2024, illustrates an example of the diversification of the use of coal on the continent. Meanwhile, the commissioning of a 335 MW unit at the Hwange power station in August 2024 will increase annual steam coal consumption by around 1 Mt.
In Zambia, two new coal-fired units have received approval to address drought-related power cuts, although they are not expected to come online until 2027. This reflects a recurring trend in the region: reliance on coal in times of water crisis, despite energy transition ambitions.
By 2027, total coal consumption in Africa will reach 203 Mt, reflecting modest growth. This progression reveals a contrast between efforts to integrate renewable energies and the immediate needs for electricity in economies still largely dependent on fossil fuels. Between environmental pressures and economic realities, coal remains a controversial pillar of the African energy landscape.
Renewable energies booming
According to the IEA's “Coal 2024” report, Asia remains the nerve center of international coal trade, with major importers such as China, India, Japan, Vietnam… and dominant exporters such as Indonesia and Australia. However, global trade is expected to begin a decline, particularly for thermal coal, reflecting the global energy transition.
Despite an expected stabilization, coal prices remain 50% higher than the pre-pandemic average (2017-2019), reflecting persistent tensions in the market. Global coal production peaked in 2024, as did international trade with 1.55 billion tonnes traded.
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