(Washington) Inflation continued its rebound in November in the United States, to 2.4% over one year against 2.3% a month earlier, according to the PCE index published Friday by the Department of Commerce and favored by the American Federal Reserve (Fed) for its monetary policy.
Posted at 9:10 a.m.
Over one month, the inflation rate, however, slowed to 0.1%, compared to 0.2% the previous two months, slightly below the expectations of analysts who expected stable monthly inflation, according to the published consensus. by briefing.com.
The PCE index evolved in the same direction as another measure of inflation, the CPI index, to which pensions are indexed, which also rebounded in October, to +2.7% over one year against + 2.6%.
On the producer side, prices even climbed in November to their highest level in almost two years, due in particular to the consequences of avian flu, according to the PPI index.
Core inflation, that is to say that excluding energy and food prices which are considered more volatile, remained stable compared to the previous month, at 2.8% year-on-year. .
From one month to the next, however, it showed signs of slowing down, amounting to 0.1%, compared to 0.3% in October and September.
The income of American households increased more slowly than in October, at 0.3% compared to 0.7%, while their spending accelerated slightly, increasing by 0.4% over one month compared to 0.3% a month before. .
Despite this context of resuming inflation, the Fed announced on Wednesday a further reduction in its rates, by 25 basis points, to bring them back to a range between 4.25% and 4.50%.
A decision which was not unanimous among the members of the institution’s Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC), one of its members, Beth Hammack, speaking out against a further reduction in rates.
Uncertainty about the future
Nor among analysts, who question the advisability of such a decline, to the extent that inflation has started to rise again over the last two months in the United States, after having followed an encouraging trajectory towards the objective of 2% per year set by the Fed.
“Inflation has slowed significantly over the last two years but it remains relatively high compared to our long-term objective of 2%,” admitted the president of the central bank, Jerome Powell.
And the Fed is now more cautious and expected to act more slowly in 2025, with only two cuts planned for the whole year, of 25 basis points each.
“We are getting very close to the neutral rate”, that is to say the interest rate having no effect, to support or slow it down, on the economy, estimated Mr. Powell.
And the Fed’s forecasts seem to support analysts’ questions: the central bank does not expect inflation to return to its target of 2% before the end of 2026 from now on. It even significantly revised its inflation forecast for 2025, which it now expects to be around 2.5%, whereas it hoped to bring it down to 2.1% in its previous forecast, in September.
Especially since the Fed is considering the possibility that the economic policy desired by President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20, will also weigh on inflation.
In particular, customs duties, one of its main measures in this area, could push prices upwards.
According to a survey of 500 American companies by the recruitment company Resume Templates, 82% of them plan to increase their prices if new customs duties are actually put in place.
Donald Trump has already announced customs duties of 25% against his neighbors Canada and Mexico, which could push prices up for the American consumer.
“We have no idea what will be taxed, from which country and for how long. We don’t know if there will be retaliatory measures. And we do not know how the transmission to consumer prices will take place,” warned Mr. Powell during his traditional press conference on Wednesday.
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