The Moroccan economy is expected to slow down to 2.6% in 2024, before returning to a more sustained pace of 3.9% in 2025 and 2026. This rebound is based on prudent assumptions: average agricultural seasons at 50 million quintals and a gradual recovery of non-agricultural sectors, notably industry and services, with expected increases of 3.6% and 3.9% over the next two years.
On the demand side, household consumption and investments will play the main drivers. However, the impact of imports should limit the contribution of net exports, reflecting a still fragile balance in trade.
Exports, key driver
Strategic sectors, such as automobiles and phosphates, will continue to structure economic dynamics. In 2026, exports are expected to increase by 8.9%, driven in particular by automobile sales which would reach 200.9 billion dirhams, thanks to the export of 650,000 vehicles. The phosphates and derivatives sector will follow a similar trend, with an increase estimated at 6.3% to peak at 99.3 billion dirhams.
Travel receipts and transfers from Moroccans living abroad (MRE) will also strengthen this dynamic, reaching 127.7 billion and 127.8 billion dirhams respectively by 2026. These foreign currency inflows will help maintain the deficit of the current account at a moderate level, estimated at 1.5% of GDP.
Budget balance under pressure
On the budgetary level, Morocco will have to reconcile economic growth and fiscal discipline. The deficit is expected to increase from 4.5% of GDP in 2024 to 3.9% in 2026, thanks to an increase in tax revenues driven by indirect taxes and efforts to rationalize public spending. But interest charges on the debt will continue to weigh, while public investments will stabilize at around 105 billion dirhams, or 6.2% of GDP.
Inflation under control, but under vigilance
After the inflationary pressures of 2022 and 2023, inflation should settle at 1% in 2024 before rising slightly to 2.4% in 2025 and falling to 1.8% in 2026. These projections reflect a gradual stabilization of inflation. food and energy prices. However, the decompensation of butane gas could create occasional tensions on regulated prices.
Reserves and resilience
Official reserve assets are expected to reach 400.2 billion dirhams in 2026, or 5 months and 8 days of imports of goods and services. These levels demonstrate prudent management of external resources and an increased capacity to absorb exogenous shocks.
While the outlook looks generally favorable, risks remain: recurrent droughts, water stress, geopolitical instability and volatility in international markets.
In short, the national economy seems ready to meet the challenges while capitalizing on its strengths. The medium-term strategy outlined by Bank Al-Maghrib must be accompanied by constant vigilance and strong political will to transform opportunities into lasting success.
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