“Debt is our enemy. » In 2007, François Bayrou made it the heart of his ill-fated campaign for the Elysée. Seventeen years later, the adversary is not defeated. The new prime minister, on the contrary, finds him stockier, muscular, more threatening than ever. From 1,200 billion euros in 2007, French public debt rose to 3,303 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2024, or 113.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the figures revealed on Friday December 20 by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee). And it’s not over yet.
After having increased by 71.7 billion euros in three months, the debt of the State, local authorities and Social Security should continue to rise for at least five years, estimates Moody’s in its latest analysis of the situation French, broadcast Wednesday. It should represent 120% of GDP in 2027. It is only in 2030 that it could begin its descent, suggests the American rating agency. The fault lies in France’s chronic inability to tighten its purse strings, a phenomenon amplified by the current political crisis.
In 2025, it is certain, the debt will continue to grow. In the failed draft budget, the State had planned to spend around 140 billion euros more than what it planned to collect in revenue. The transitional absence of a budget, replaced for at least a few months by the minimalist “special law” adopted on Wednesday, can only increase this gap, in the absence of proactive measures to increase taxes or curb public spending. Not counting the bill for Cyclone Chino which ravaged Mayotte on December 14, “probably the most serious natural disaster in the history of France for several centuries”according to François Bayrou.
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Far from returning to 5% of GDP as hoped, the public deficit risks, according to various projections, settling between 5.5% and 7%, which will require borrowing even larger sums. As it stands, “our program plans emissions of 300 billion euros in 2025”, or 15 billion more than in 2024, announced Thursday Antoine Deruennes, the director general of Agence France Trésor, responsible for selling French debt to investors. “We start on Monday January 6. »
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