Real estate, the FFB sounds the alarm on an unprecedented crisis

In its annual report, the French Building Federation (FFB) warns of the extent of the recession that the construction sector is going through while real estate rates are increasingly favorable for borrowers. With a record drop in construction starts and worrying forecasts for 2025, professional organization paints a worrying picture.

Borrowing rates noted on 12/18/2024

An unprecedented drop in activity in 2024

According to FFB data, construction activity fell by 6.6% in volume in 2024, a contraction that has not been observed for decades. New housing is the most impacted, with a dizzying drop of 21.9%.. Housing starts, estimated at only 253,000 units, reached a historic low. The FFB emphasizes that this level is comparable to that of 1954, highlighting a structural crisis.

In detail, individual housing recorded a fall of 23.7% in volume, while the collective fell by 6.9%. New non-residential construction, which includes professional and administrative buildings, also fell by 7.4%, penalized by drastic reductions in the office (-22.8%) and hotel (-29.3%) sectors. .

Alone the improvement-maintenance activity shows a slight increase (+ 1.2%)but the FFB tempers this optimism, citing the limited effects of the MaPrimeRénov’ reform and the slowdown in the old housing market.

Even more alarming 2025 forecasts

The FFB’s projections for 2025 further accentuate concerns: an additional drop of 5.6% in volume is expected. New housing should suffer a further contraction of 14.2%, with a collapse in construction site openings to 239,000 units, lowest level ever recorded.

The FFB anticipates a continued deterioration in individual housing (-12.6%) and a slight decline in collective housing (-1.2%). New non-residential properties would not be spared, with a forecast fall of 15%.

Even the improvement-maintenance segment, usually more stable, is experiencing slowdown, with modest growth forecast at +0.9%. The FFB attributes this stagnation to weakened demand and insufficient public aid.

A heavy impact on employment

Despite a decline in activity, employment remained relatively resilient in 2024, with a drop limited to 2.2% (around 30,000 full-time equivalent positions eliminated). However, the FFB anticipates a worsening of the situation in 2025, with an estimated loss of 7.5% of the workforce, which would represent around 100,000 jobs lostmainly in salaried and temporary employment.

The FFB insists on the need for emergency measures to avoid a hemorrhage in employment and support a vital sector for the French economy. Among the solutions mentioned, the expansion of the zero-rate loan (PTZ), an overhaul of the Pinel system and a revaluation of MaPrimeRénov’. However, the absence of a finance law for 2025 weighs heavily on the visibility and anticipation of stakeholders.

A call for strong political decisions

In this context, the FFB urges the government to respond quickly to limit the damage. “If concrete measures are not taken quickly, we risk seeing a lasting crisis set in, with irreversible consequences for the economy and employment,” warns the organization.

With unprecedented figures and worrying prospects, the FFB calls for collective mobilization to recover a sector in crisis and preserve the thousands of jobs directly linked to it.