Bad news for the climate: global demand for coal reached a new record in 2024, the hottest year on record, and only the rise of renewable energies should help stabilize it until 2027, the International Agency reported of Energy (AIE) on Wednesday.
Two sad records in 2024
“After reaching a record level in 2024, global coal demand is expected to stabilize” until 2027 due to the strong growth in renewable energies, writes the IEA in its annual report on coal in the world over the period. 2024-2027.
Demand is expected to reach 8.77 billion tonnes this year, the agency said. Global coal trade is also expected to reach an unprecedented level in volume, with 1.55 billion tonnes, while prices remain 50% higher than the average observed between 2017 and 2019.
This new record echoes another: 2024 will be the first year beyond the threshold of 1.5°C of warming compared to the pre-industrial period, the long-term limit set by the Paris agreement, according to the observatory European Copernicus.
Last year had already been marked by these same excesses: 2023 had been the hottest year so far and global demand for coal had reached the historic level of 8.53 billion tonnes.
Chinese locomotive
“Our models show that global coal demand is expected to stabilize until 2027, even if electricity consumption increases sharply,” says Keisuke Sadamori, director of energy markets at the IEA.
“The rapid deployment of clean energy technologies is transforming the global electricity sector, which accounts for two-thirds of global coal consumption,” he adds, emphasizing that the rapid growth in demand for electricity “will also be decisive in the medium term”.
China is the market leader: a third of the coal consumed in the world is burned in Chinese power plants, according to the agency. It is followed by certain emerging economies such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam, where strong growth in electricity demand is driven by economic and demographic growth.
“Asia remains at the center of the international coal trade,” says the agency, with all the largest importing countries (China, India, Japan, Korea and Vietnam), while among the largest exporters we find the Indonesia and Australia.
“Major uncertainties”
In contrast, most advanced economies have “already reached” a “peak” and demand is expected to continue to decline until 2027, according to the IEA. She emphasizes that the “rate of this decline will depend on the implementation of ambitious policies”, such as those of the European Union, and the availability of alternative energy sources, notably cheap natural gas in the United States.
The only glimmer of hope in this panorama, the “massive deployment” of renewable energies, including in China, “will slow down the growth in the use of coal despite a growing demand for electricity”, estimates the IEA.
Beijing continued to diversify its energy sector in 2024, with the construction of nuclear power plants and an “immense expansion” of the country’s photovoltaic and wind capacity. “This should help limit the increase in coal consumption until 2027,” estimates the agency.
But, Keisuke Sadamori warns, “weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends in coal demand.”
The IEA indeed warns of a “certain number of major uncertainties” in its analysis. It notes in particular that electricity consumption is increasing sharply due to the electrification of transport and heating, the growing demand for air conditioning and increasing consumption in new sectors such as data centers.
“In addition, weather conditions could lead to fluctuations in coal consumption in the short term,” she points out. Consequence of these uncertainties: coal demand in China by 2027 could vary by 140 million tonnes up or down compared to forecasts. And therefore allow us to finally see the demand for coal decline, or grow further.
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