The year is ending, and instead of talking about what happened in 2024 (and which we have already forgotten), I would instead like to review what we learned in 2024.
Published at 9:00 a.m.
What notions that were obvious in January are obsolete today?
Here are a few.
There was no recession
The pessimism anticipated at the start of the year did not materialize. Stocks, bonds, real estate: everything was up – sometimes very sharply – this year. Growth in Quebec’s gross domestic product could be 1.2% in 2024. That’s not huge. But it is twice what was anticipated in January. There was no recession in 2024. Nor in 2023. Nor in 2022. Nor in 2021…
The rise in rates did not crash the stock market
A year ago, we read everywhere that the increase in interest rates launched in 2022 by central banks would end up crashing the stock market. Well, we can abandon this idea. The Toronto Stock Exchange climbed 14% from the first rate hike in March 2022 to the first rate cut in June 2024. In the United States, the S&P 500 recorded a 36% gain from March 2022 to September 2024. Monetary policy is just one of many factors that influence stock prices, and a highly overrated one, writes Charlie Bilello, chief strategist at Creative Planning, in a recent analysis. Ignoring interest rate movements has always been the best strategy for long-term investors. »
The world is a surprising place
This is true every year, but it’s good to remember. Donald Trump was re-elected. Bashar al-Assad lives in exile. Ukraine resists. A barrel of oil is worth less today than at the start of the Russian invasion. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, Toronto Stock Exchange, gold and bitcoin are all at record highs. Elon Musk has increased his fortune by $218 billion since 1is January. A Washington state woman had to call 911 and flee her property after being chased by about 100 aggressive raccoons (that’s right). Life is complex and unpredictable. Be careful of overly satisfying narratives. To the “if x occurs, then y will arise. » The world doesn’t work like that. The world is a surprising place.
Watch the CTV News report on raccoons
The American economy dominates the planet
And from afar. GDP growth could be 3% in the United States this year. No less than 75% of large American companies have just announced higher profits than analysts expected. These companies expect to increase their profits by 13% in 2025. As always, American consumers are spending (and are much less in debt than us). The United States begins 2025 in first place.
The Magnificent Seven are no longer alone
We’ve been told for years: if the American stock market is doing so well, it’s thanks to the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Google, Amazon, etc.) who are pulling the market up. Well, in 2024, four sectors of the S&P 500 have returned more than 30%: the financial sector, the technology sector, the communications sector and the utilities sector. Additionally, small caps have done almost as well as larger companies. Over the past year, the Russell 2000 index (which includes 2,000 small-cap companies) is up 27%, compared to 31% for the S&P 500.
The 60/40 portfolio is not dead
Every six months or so, an article in the economic press tells us that the good old 60/40 portfolio is dead. Made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, such a portfolio is often recommended for people who want long-term growth, but also protection against excessive falls. On October 28, 2023, the Marketwatch site published a long analysis which explained to us that such a portfolio was outdated because of inflation and rising rates. Ten thousand dollars invested that day in the Vanguard Balanced ETF Portfolio (VBAL) composed of 60% Canadian, American and international stocks, and 40% bonds, was worth $12,440 after one year. This gives a yield of 24%. Not bad for an outdated strategy.
Read the Marketwatch analysis
Time is going away
“Time is passing, time is passing […] Weary! time no, but we are leaving,” wrote Pierre de Ronsard. This is not personal finance advice. Nor an economic data. Just a reminder that we are all a half-decade older than when COVID-19 emerged. If time seems to speed up over the years, it is because our brain judges it unnecessary to write events into our memory that are too similar to those that are already there. To slow down time, you have to try something new. New sport. New releases. New encounters. New habits. That’s why after a week traveling, you feel like you’ve been gone for a month. A resolution for 2025?
Related News :