ASML: Towards the start of a bullish reversal?

ASML Stock Falls 40% Amid Significant Seedling Industry Headwinds

ASML shares have suffered a sharp correction, losing up to 40% of their value since their record high of €1,000 reached this summer. The decline reflects broader sector dynamics, marked by waning investor appetite for semiconductors after a spectacular rally fueled by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI). Although Nvidia, a leading player in the sector, maintains some resilience thanks to its positioning, a large part of semiconductor technology stocks are under pressure, with notable corrections since their spring or summer highs.

Outside of AI, the semiconductor market faces headwinds. Global demand for traditional applications, such as consumer electronics chips and memory, remains weak. For ASML, a leader in the supply of lithography machines, this resulted in a significant drop in orders in the third quarter of 2023 (2.63 billion euros compared to 5.56 billion euros in the second quarter). Key customers like Samsung and TSMC have delayed expansion plans and equipment orders due to market uncertainties and overcapacity.

Although the quarterly results slightly exceeded expectations (revenue and net profit above forecast), investors were cooled by the revision of the company’s outlook. ASML now forecasts annual revenue of €30 billion to €35 billion for 2025, compared to a previous range of €30 billion to €40 billion.

ASML Stock Price Daily Chart – Key Levels