Even before his inauguration scheduled for next January, Donald Trump announces drastic measures: imposing customs duties of 25% on all products coming from Mexico and Canada. The goal, he says, is to stop the flow of drugs like fentanyl and illegal immigration, which he sees as a threat to the United States.
Donald Trump's assumed protectionist strategy
On his Truth Social network, the former president also promised a 10% increase in taxes on Chinese products, saying he wanted to protect the American economy and fight against trade practices he considers unfair.
Donald Trump plans to use “national security” arguments to circumvent World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and justify these new taxes. China, the main target of these measures, could see some of its products taxed up to 60%, or even 200% for vehicles assembled in Mexico. During his first term, Trump had already started a trade war with Beijing, justifying his decisions by the American trade deficit and the alleged theft of intellectual property. If the Biden administration had maintained the taxes introduced at the time, it had avoided adding more.
The reactions were not long in coming. Chinese diplomacy warned that a new escalation would be detrimental for both sides, recalling that Sino-American trade relations are “ mutually beneficial “. On the Canadian side, where 75% of exports are destined for the United States, leaders express serious concerns.
A double-edged policy for the United States
François Legault, Quebec Prime Minister, called the decision “ huge risk » for the Canadian economy, while Justin Trudeau highlighted the energy interdependence between the two countries. Mexico, on the other hand, has played down the potential impact, but will have to deal with a renegotiable free trade agreement in 2026.
While this protectionist strategy could encourage the relocation of certain production to the United States, it is not without risks. Inflation could rise, dampening domestic consumption, while the Federal Reserve would be forced to keep interest rates high to stabilize the economy. In addition, the European Union, already weakened by its energy dependence on the United States and the war in Ukraine, could react to protect its exports, particularly in luxury goods and spirits.
Donald Trump therefore seems to be banking on an aggressive posture to strengthen the position of the United States in trade negotiations. However, this approach could rekindle international tensions and destabilize economies already weakened by successive crises.
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