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While waiting for Commerzbank, UniCredit launches an offer for Banco BPM

This offer concerns all ordinary shares of BPM and aims to strengthen Unicredit’s positioning in one of its main markets, Italy.

The second Italian bank UniCredit launched on Monday a public exchange offer (OPE) of shares on Banco BPM, the third banking group, valuing the latter at 10.1 billion euros, at a time when its plan for a possible takeover of Commerzbank is marking time.

This offer, however, does not seem to be to the taste of the right-wing and far-right government of Giorgia Meloni, because it risks thwarting its plan to create a third banking center in Italy.

The OPE “was communicated” to the Italian government, but “was not the subject of an agreement”, commented the Minister of the Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti.

He raised the hypothesis that Rome could block the operation by resorting to “golden power”, which gives it special powers in sectors considered strategic for the country.

Before the UniCredit offer, speculation was rife about the creation of a third banking center formed by Banco BPM and Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), which would compete with the heavyweights in the sector, Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit.

With this in mind, Banco BPM has just purchased 5% of the capital of MPS, put up for sale by the government, and launched a public purchase offer (OPA) of 1.6 billion euros for the Italian asset management group. Anima assets which acquired 3%.

“We have no ambition regarding MPS,” assured Monday the CEO of UniCredit, Andrea Orcel, whose attempt to buy this bank, saved by the Italian state in 2017, came to an end in October 2021.

Board of Directors Tuesday

A Banco BPM board of directors scheduled for Tuesday should review “initial information” on the UniCredit OPE, a bank spokesperson told AFP.

This offer concerns all the ordinary shares of Banco BPM, whose largest shareholder is Crédit Agricole with a share of 9.18%, and aims to “strengthen the positioning of UniCredit” in Italy, according to Mr. Orcel.

The offer on Banco BPM comes as UniCredit announced in September first the acquisition of 9% of Commerzbank, then its increase to 21% of the capital, fueling rumors about a possible complete takeover of its German rival.

“We will only proceed” with an offer for Commerzbank “if certain conditions are met, which requires a change in the position of certain stakeholders” in Germany, Mr. Orcel said during a conference with analysts.

“What we expect from Commerzbank has not changed,” but given the resistance encountered in Germany, “we must be patient and give everyone time,” he argued.

While waiting for early elections in Germany, “we do not have the capacity to move in the short term and perhaps there will be no capacity to move at all,” he noted.

“Stronger banks”

The OPE on BPM would create “an even stronger second bank in an important market, able to generate significant long-term value for all shareholders and for Italy,” UniCredit explained.

The Italian bank offered 0.175 of its ordinary share for each Banco BPM share, valuing them at 6.657 euros each, a premium of around 0.5% to Friday’s closing price. Too little in the eyes of Equita analysts who judged this bonus “limited”.

The announcement of the OPE caused the title of Banco BPM to take off on the Milan Stock Exchange, where it rose by 5.18% to 6.988 euros around 5:00 p.m. (4:00 p.m. GMT). Conversely, UniCredit fell 5.12% to 36.14 euros.

The minimum acceptance threshold for the OPE was set at 66.67%, but could be revised downwards, without falling below 50%, UniCredit said.

“Europe needs stronger and bigger banks that help it develop its own economy and be competitive with other main economic blocs,” assured Mr. Orcel.

“Being able to position ourselves in Italy gives us more options and more strength and makes us less tied to the need to complete” or not a takeover of Commerzbank, he commented.

According to UniCredit calculations, group synergies will enable cost savings of around 900 million euros per year and an increase in revenues of around 300 million euros per year thanks to the strengthening of the product offering and services.

Banco BPM, formed in 2017 from the merger between Banco Popolare and Banca Popolare di Milan, is the third Italian banking group in terms of assets (194.5 billion euros), behind Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit.

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