how much is the browser worth, who can buy it and what would Google be without it?

The American government is demanding the sale of the Chrome internet browser by Google to limit its competitive advantage, an operation that would shake up the search giant, as long as one or more buyers come forward. The US Department of Justice recommended this measure on Wednesday to the federal judge in Washington who must rule next year on the sentence of Google, found guilty of anti-competitive practices in online search.

What would be the impact for Google?

“This would be a hard blow to Google which would drastically change its economic model”estimates Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush Securities. “This would deprive them of a major internet portal, from which they get a lot of information that they can use to train their algorithms and strengthen their research activity”explains Beth Egan, professor of advertising at Syracuse University. Launched in 2008, Chrome now captures nearly 70% of the browser market, which has seen the share of Explorer and Edge, Microsoft's two products, fall from more than 60% to less than 5%.

Despite everything, observers do not see in this possible sale the threat of an existential crisis for Google. Beth Egan draws a parallel with the drastic limitation by Apple and its Safari browser of «cookies»markers that allow companies to trace an Internet user's journey on the web. “Advertisers said to themselves: we have a blind spot, but we will manage”she remembers. “And Google will do the same thing.”

How much is Chrome worth?

An analyst from the Bloomberg agency estimates the sales price of the browser, which has more than three billion users, to be at least $15 billion. The lack of significant precedent nevertheless makes any estimation difficult. In 2016, Norwegian Opera Software ASA sold its browser to a group of Chinese investors for $600 million, but at the time it only claimed 350 million monthly users.

Which potential buyers?

“There are really not many potential buyers of Chrome”says Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf, from the Emarketer firm. Furthermore, adds the analyst, “it is likely that all companies that have the means are already under surveillance by the competition authorities”. “I don’t see who can buy it without creating a new competition problem”abonde Beth Egan.

For Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf, the American government could nevertheless authorize an American group to acquire the browser “to prioritize innovation in AI (artificial intelligence) and to position the United States globally” on this new technology.

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Would this benefit other browsers?

“If Chrome is split (from Google) and adopts another default engine, search volume will migrate to that platform and stay there as long as quality does not significantly deteriorate”reducing Google's market share, predicts Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf. However, she warns, this assumes that the new owner continues to invest and innovate in Chrome. “The Department of Justice believes that people use Google because it is the default (Chrome) search engine” and provides that if the choice is left to users, “They will take another, but that seems improbable to me”.

What will the Trump administration's position be?

Many already expect that Judge Amit Mehta will not follow the US government's recommendations regarding Chrome. For Angelo Zino, from the CFRA firm, these measures are “extreme and should not be imposed by the court”. Furthermore, the prospect of the new Trump administration taking office at the end of January, “is a joker”according to the analyst.

In October, Donald Trump suggested that he was not in favor of dismantling Google, believing that a split would be penalizing for the United States internationally. “China is afraid of Google”he declared, while being very critical of the Californian group.