“A euphoria that begins to raise questions”

« On day one » is one of Donald Trump's favorite phrases. His “first day” of work, the day after his induction, January 20, 2025, will therefore be very busy. In the crosshairs, Gary Gensler is particularly concerned. It must be said that the president of the SEC, the authority of American financial markets, symbolizes the regulation that Mr. Trump hates. He is also a sworn enemy of cryptocurrencies, a den, according to him, of crooks and thieves. Mr. Gensler warned on Thursday, November 21, that he would leave on January 20.

This perspective and the words of candidate Trump presenting bitcoin and its counterparts as a force for America have logically propelled these stateless currencies to new heights. Bitcoin has soared by 50% and dogecoin, which Elon Musk has widely promoted, has seen its price multiply by 2.6 since the election. According to the specialized site CoinGecko, the cryptocurrency market has now reached 3,400 billion dollars (3,200 billion euros), half of which is for bitcoin alone.

A euphoria never seen since the bubble of 2000

This asset class is not the only one to welcome the political change in Washington. For the first time in its history, the flagship index of the American Stock Exchange, the S&P 500 (the top 500 quotes), crossed the threshold of 6,000 points on November 11, before falling slightly since. A euphoria which is beginning to question some observers.

In a note dated November 18, Bruno Jacquier, the economist at Atlantic Financial, notes that the portfolio of American households is made up of 42% of stocks, and even 70% for individual investors (those individuals who make a living from their investments). He also points out that, in the market, there are many more optimists than pessimists, and that the valuation levels of shares, 28 times earnings, are “stratospheric”. So many elements which characterize a euphoria never seen since the bubble of 2000. For him, the violent correction is in no doubt. But when? At the next sign of economic slowdown. We are not necessarily very far from it. And bitcoin, which generally evolves like the stock market, will not escape the rule.