Zurich (awp) – Zurich wealth manager Julius Bär presents Thursday, November 21, certain indicators on the progress of his business after 10 months. Five analysts provided their perspectives for the development of the AWP consensus.
au 31.10.2024E (en mrd CHF) consensus AWP fourchette 30.06.2024A estimations masse sous gestion (AuM) 476 472 - 478 474 5 10M 2024E 10M 2023A (en pb) marge brute 85 83,0 - 87,0 "au-dessus" 89 5 (en %) ratio coût/revenu aj. 70,4 69,0 - 71,0 "vers" 68 4
FOCUS: analysts generally expect a slight increase in assets under management (AuM) since the middle of the year, supported by positive market developments, even if it was somewhat dampened by currency effects . The bank also recorded net inflows of new money between July and October. At the same time, the probability of a share buyback by the end of the year is receding and its announcement will depend on the conclusions of the Finma investigation carried out in the context of the Signa debacle, notes Vontobel.
OBJECTIVES: The medium-term outlook for the period 2023-2025 projects an adjusted pre-tax margin of between 28 and 31 basis points (bps) and an adjusted cost-to-income ratio below 64%. For adjusted pre-tax profit, the bank is targeting annual growth of 10%. The adjusted return on common equity (CET1) is expected to be above 30% for the period. In July, the bank raised its gross savings target for the current strategic cycle to 145 million Swiss francs, compared to 120 million previously. The cost reduction plan, which results in the elimination of 250 positions and should be fully effective by the end of 2025, should save 140 million this year.
FOR THE RECORD: Julius Bär acquired the Swiss real estate company Kuoni Mueller & Partner (KMP) in September, renaming the subsidiary Julius Bär Real Estate and appointing Thomas Hodel as its head as of February 1, 2025. The bank had already taken a majority stake in the company in summer 2021. She could also hope to be partially reimbursed after the depreciation of 606 million Swiss francs recorded on the balance sheet 2023 linked to loans granted to Signa. Julius Bär could in fact recover up to 100 million Swiss francs following the sale of Signa’s share in the British department store group Selfridges to a Saudi sovereign fund, the NZZ understands. At the end of September, Signa’s share in the operational activities of the Globus department store group of the Thai Central Group had already been announced. Finally, since July, the name of the future CEO of the bank has been known. Stefan Bollinger, born in 1974 and currently co-head of wealth management for the EMEA region at Goldman Sachs, will take up his position no later than February 2025. In the meantime, Nic Dreckmann will take over in the interim.
SHARE PRICE: Julius Bär shares have risen 13% since the start of the year, outperforming the market average as measured by the SPI. Last year, it fell by 12%.
Homepage: www.juliusbaer.com
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