The difference between 10-year rates in the United States and Germany has increased by around 50 basis points in 2 months to return above 200 bps this week.
Since the end of September, American rates have experienced a notable rebound, particularly on long maturities. The difference between 10-year rates in the United States and Germany has increased by around 50 basis points in 2 months to return above 200 bps this week.
Our analysis
The election of Donald Trump and the anticipation of this election largely explain this movement. The markets associate the new president’s program with continued vigorous American growth in the future, coupled with a possible rebound in inflation. Market expectations relating to US monetary policy have evolved accordingly, with a reduction of only 75 bps in the Fed’s key rate now expected by the end of 2025, compared to 150 bps at the end of September.
Conversely, the market continues to expect moderate inflation and growth in Europe, with the central scenario still being an ECB rate cut of 125 bps by the end of 2025.
In this context, several movements can be exploited on the bond markets: the spread of American rates compared to European rates on the one hand, but also a “steepening” of the curves, long rates tending to rise while short rates are less sensitive to this movement and should resume a downward trend due to the context of monetary easing. More generally, the growth differential on both sides of the Atlantic is currently favorable to holders of European debt.
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