Carrefour bought by a Portuguese competitor? The “obvious” hypothesis of AlphaValue analysts

Monday 18th November 2024 07:07 AM

On the stock market, the performance of Carrefour shares has been disappointing in recent years. According to the Bloomberg agency, management is studying different options to remedy this, which would potentially go as far as the sale of the group. But to whom? In 2021, Paris vetoed the approach of Canadian Couche-Tard. Perhaps a European player will do the trick: this is the opinion of the AlphaValue design office.
Adobe Stock – Figaro Patrimoine et Bourse

CONFIDENTIAL STOCK MARKET – Every week, Le Figaro Patrimoine et Bourse relays confidential information identified in analyst notes to help you in your investment decisions.

What if Jerónimo Martins bought Carrefour? AlphaValue's arguments

Certainly, distribution is not celebrating on the stock market, but the Parisian research office AlphaValue notes that the Carrefour share “massively underperformed the sector» in Europe. Over ten years, the latter has progressed on average by 91% while the Carrefour stock has lost 16% and that of the best student, the Portuguese Jerónimo Martins, has gained 221%!

The first of the two capitalizes 10 billion euros and the second almost 12 billion, but their valuations have nothing to do with each other: the PER of the first is of the order of 7 times the expected profits in 2025 compared to 16 times for the second. Very early on, Jerónimo Martins bet on emerging countries by buying the Polish leader Biedronka (70% of its turnover today) and for 17 years, its growth has been greater than that of the French company. However, according to the Bloomberg agency, Carrefour wants to increase its value and would consider its sale.

Also read
Connected glasses “will one day replace smartphones”, predicts the boss of EssilorLuxottica

For AlphaValue, the takeover of Carrefour by Jerónimo Martins would be, “from a financial point of view, obvious»…