The industry, forced to take the path of decarbonization in accordance with the carbon neutrality objectives for 2050, will see its electricity consumption double by this deadline, according to the latest study by La Fabrique de l'industrie published this Thursday, November 14. A development which does not fail to raise numerous challenges, both logistical and financial.
Industry will consume 207 TWh by 2050
To meet its climate commitments, French industry must accelerate its electrification, a titanic project which involves a doubling of its electricity consumption. In 2023, this sector used 103 terawatt hours (TWh), a figure expected to reach 207 TWh by 2050 according to projections of The Industry Factory. This spectacular increase reflects the gradual replacement of fossil fuels, such as gas and fuel oil, by largely carbon-free electricity, largely from nuclear energy.
The transition covers two main aspects. On the one hand, the direct electrification of industrial processes such as heating, drying or heat treatments. On the other hand, the growing use of carbon-free hydrogen, produced from electricity, particularly for sectors such as steel or ammonia. Added to this are the electricity needs for CO2 capture and storage technologies, essential for reducing residual emissions in industries such as cement, where complete electrification is still out of reach due to lack of technological solutions.
Colossal logistical and economic challenges
However, this transformation will not be without obstacles. The success of electrification depends on three critical parameters according to the Fabrique de l'industrie study: carbon-free electricity, competitive prices and sufficient production and transport capacity to industrial sites. Today, these conditions are not entirely met. If France already benefits from one of the least carbon-intensive electricity mixes in Europe, thanks to its nuclear fleet, uncertainties hover over the future availability of this electricity at a competitive price. At the same time, the aging of nuclear infrastructures, combined with the need to deploy renewable energies, makes the challenge even more complex from both a logistical and financial point of view.
Cost remains the major barrier. “ This is not a given project because we need electricity at an affordable, competitive, predictable and accessible price. », recalls David Loloauthor of the study. Industrialists, after the energy crisis launched by the war in Ukraine since 2022, are seeking guarantees of long-term price stability. In this sense, EDF offers nuclear production allocation contracts (CAPN) in order to guarantee preferential rates on electricity in the long term, in exchange for taking risks on nuclear production. These contracts were set up with a view to replacing the Arenh in 2025. But manufacturers still consider them too expensive and are asking for more guarantees of price stability.
The government for its part, and as part of the 2025 budget, plans to allocate an envelope of 1.55 billion euros to support the decarbonization of industry. This envelope will finance strategic projects such as battery factories, electrolysers, CO2 capture infrastructure, and electrical connections, in order to meet climate objectives and strengthen the competitiveness of industrial sites.
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