OTTAWA | The federal Liberals continue to lose weight in Quebec, so much so that Justin Trudeau is now fighting for second place against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, who are approaching the pay zone.
• Also read: Quebecers dissatisfied with Trump’s election, according to a Léger pollThe Journal-TVA
The Bloc Québécois is still in the lead, with 35% of voting intentions, according to a Léger-The Journal-TVA.
Support for the sovereignist party has therefore stabilized after a significant surge since the end of the summer.
A good performance which allowed him to capture, against all expectations, the liberal castle of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in mid-September.
Fight for 2e place
Far behind him, liberals and conservatives are engaged in a heated battle for second place.
Justin Trudeau’s troops continue to bleed in Quebec, as they have lost 5 percentage points in the last month in voting intentions.
At 22%, the Liberals find themselves in a statistical tie with the Conservatives, whose support now stands at 24%.
“Clearly, the Conservatives are in the game,” says pollster Sébastien Dallaire, of the Léger 360 firm. “They are approaching the paying zone, in the sense that if they go for a few more points, we could talk about several additional seats possibly in Quebec.”
Thanks to young people
This conservative push is partly attributable to young people, who are more conservative overall than previous generations.
This is a trend that is observed elsewhere in the country, but also in the United States, with the victory of Donald Trump, analyzes Mr. Dallaire.
Among 18-34 year olds, the conservatives outperform with 33% of support.
Whether on the right, with the Conservative Party, or on the left, with the NDP, the youth vote is oriented towards “change,” he specifies.
“Parties that offer something completely different work better among young people, whether on the right or the left,” says Mr. Dallaire.
Stable dissatisfaction
The Trudeau government’s difficulties in voting intentions are reflected in the dissatisfaction rate, which reaches 60% in Quebec.
When it comes to who would make the best prime minister, Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre are still tied at 20% respectively.
METHODOLOGY
Web survey carried out among 1,010 Quebecers aged 18 or over from November 8 to 11, 2024. It is not possible to calculate a margin of error on a sample drawn from a panel, but for comparison, the margin maximum error for a sample of 1,010 respondents is ± 3.08%, 19 times out of 20.
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