will the price of electricity fall in February 2025

The drop in the price of electricity is the Arlesian of the moment. Everyone is talking about it, but the closer the February 2025 deadline gets, the lower the regulated rate… falls! Bruno Le Maire initially spoke of 10 to 15%. The latest figure put forward by the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) was 9%. EJP, as a regulated tariff, should therefore fall by 9% on February 1, 2025.

Evolution of the EJP tariff since 2010

Source: Selectra based on EDF regulated tariffs

The latest change in the EJP rate went unnoticed due to its small scale: the subscription increased by a few cents on November 1, 2024. As of February 1, 2025:

• the subscription is expected to increase due to the increase in TURPE and the increase in VAT from 5.5% to 20%
• the price of kWh excluding taxes and contributions will fall due to the end of the electricity crisis. We estimate that the price of peak kWh, which is more than €1.5, should fall as a priority.
• the TURPE (Enedis and RTE network tariff) will increase. It should have increased on August 1, but the resigning minister saw fit to postpone the increase. This shift will therefore probably lead to the creation of an additional tariff brick to make up for these 6 months of losses for network managers.
• The TICFE will increase from €21 currently to €32 (its normal rate) or even up to €50 per MWh as part of the government's efforts to contain the budget deficit

In total, the regulated price should fall by around 9% including tax.

With only one tariff component falling and all the others increasing, it's hard to believe, but we still expect the EJP tariff to drop in February 2025.

The EJP option, often forgotten in announcements

When last winter, the Minister of the Economy announced a “contained” increase in regulated prices, he only mentioned the base and peak off-peak hours options. Like the Tempo option, the EJP option is often forgotten, due to its relatively small number of customers. Worse, as this option is being phased out, it is subject to a separate price list.

We know that the Tempo option should increase in February 2025, contrary to announcements of a reduction in the regulated rate. However, the EJP option is significantly less competitive and should therefore not suffer the same fate.

We currently recommend EJP subscribers to join the Tempo option, still cheaper, even if this gap should narrow on February 1st. Learn more.