Climate change will not spare the ski industry in Quebec, concludes a vast study just unveiled. The good news? We will continue skiing. The bad one? Rising temperatures and falling snow cover will force resorts to spend millions… at a time when ridership is stagnating and ticket prices are exploding.
Posted at 1:12 a.m.
Updated at 5:00 a.m.
Up to 19 more days without snow
The ski industry will face a headwind in the coming decades. The study published by Ouranos in collaboration with the Association of Quebec Ski Resorts (ASSQ) targets four priority indicators, all of which will harm the sport.
IMAGE PROVIDED BY OURANOS
Ouranos has identified four priority climate indicators.
- Average winter temperatures will increase by 1.7°C over the period 2021-2050 compared to the years 1991-2020 in the ski regions of Quebec. Ouranos predicts that they will then increase by 2.3°C to 3.1°C during the period 2041-2070.
- Freeze-thaw days will also be more frequent in winter (+7 by 2041-2070), further complicating slope maintenance.
- It will rain more in winter, with increases of 33 mm and 43 mm respectively by 2021-2050 and 2041-2070. “Total precipitation over the winter season is generally increasing. This increase is mainly due to an increase in precipitation in liquid form. In general, few changes are projected for precipitation in solid form,” Ouranos warns in his Diagnosis of vulnerability of the alpine ski system in the face of climate change.
- Experts predict that there will be four more days without natural snow cover each year by 2021-2050, then six to eight more by 2041-2070. Snow will become even rarer in the southern regions. Experts predict each year up to 19 more days without snow in Montérégie, 14 more days in Chaudière-Appalaches and 13 more in Estrie by 2041-2070.
Skiing is here to stay
Despite all these climatic challenges, the ski industry will be able to continue its activities, in particular thanks to an increase in investments.
“That’s the message I sent. There will continue to be a winter in Quebec, that’s good news, we felt that there were skeptics when we talk to government partners, to investors,” indicates Yves Juneau, president and CEO of the ASSQ, who sees the glass half full.
IMAGE PROVIDED BY OURANOS
Number of days of ski resort operation
The season will be a little shorter. But Ouranos predicts that the stations will succeed in limiting the drop in their opening days. In the worst climate scenario, the number of operating days would drop from 104 to 97 in the Laurentians, for example. In the best scenario, ski resorts in the most important regions – Laurentides, Estrie and Capitale-Nationale – would even manage to be open 100 days a year.
A stagnant customer base
Quebec resorts reached peak traffic in the mid-2000s, with 7.2 million ski days. The situation has since stabilized around 6 million ski days.
What will be the impact of climate change? In the best case scenario, ridership could “remain stable by the end of the century, but could also fall by more than 25% over the same period,” warns Ouranos.
IMAGE PROVIDED BY OURANOS
Projection of ski resort traffic
Small comfort: Quebec could benefit from an “increased influx of skiers from neighboring regions such as New England and Ontario, where the effects of global warming are more pronounced”.
More expensive tickets
The study notes that the decline in visitor numbers was offset by an increase in ticket prices. In 20 years, from 2001 to 2021, weekend day tickets have increased by 119% and season tickets by 51%. The consumer price index increased by 41% over the same period.
IMAGE PROVIDED BY OURANOS
Evolution of ski ticket prices
« It’s a challenge, but the clientele has adapted,” believes Michel Archambault, professor emeritus in the department of urban and tourism studies at UQAM. “I have been studying with the ASSQ for 30 years. At the start, 25% of customers subscribed and 75% of people bought tickets. Today, 75% buy a subscription, which costs less per day. »
Mr. Archambault also notes that ticket prices are even higher in the American Northeast. “A weekend ticket costs $179 on average there, compared to $57 in Quebec. That’s more than three times. In Ontario, it’s one and a half times, if not twice as expensive. When we compare ourselves, we console ourselves. »
Rising costs
Ouranos predicts that stations will have to hire more employees to maintain the same level of services.
“The pressure on operating costs was already present, it will continue to be so. But automation, of snowmaking for example, is perhaps a way forward. But it will take investments,” notes Yves Juneau.
The president and CEO of the ASSQ makes no secret of it: he would like Quebec to set up an aid program for ski resorts to adapt to climate change.
“There is plenty of support in lots of industries and we think the ski industry needs to be supported,” he says. We can’t send the mountain to Mexico. The money invested in the mountain will stay with us. »
But as ticket prices rise faster than the CPI, how will ski subsidies be perceived by the public? Yves Juneau rejects the label “sport for the rich”. “Yes, there is a wealthy clientele in skiing, those in competition clubs for example, but they are not the only ones. »
He argues that registering a young person for hockey can cost much more. “Skiing is one of the only sports where mom, dad and the kids can move together. Other sports, often the parents are seated, he said. If you want to get people moving in winter, it’s really an excellent sport. »
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