2025 will be the year of all records for Tesla

Electric car news

Tesla, the American electric car giant, recently announced its intention to return to significant growth in its deliveries for next year. The objective? Produce around 500,000 more electric vehicles than in 2024. A major challenge that raises many questions about the company's ability to achieve this ambitious goal.

Spectacular growth predicted for 2025

After a year 2024 marked by stagnation in deliveries, Tesla plans to return to impressive growth. The company is targeting an increase in its deliveries of between 20 and 30% for the year 2025. Concretely, this means that Tesla aims to deliver between 2.2 and 2.4 million electric vehicles next year.

To put these numbers into perspective, if Tesla achieves its goal of delivering a record 515,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2024, the company will have delivered approximately 1,850,000 vehicles for the entire year. The increase planned for 2025 therefore represents a considerable leap in the production and delivery of electric vehicles.

Tesla's strategies to achieve this ambitious goal

To achieve this spectacular growth, Tesla is relying on several levers:

• The ramp-up of Cybertruck production
• The launch of two new, more affordable models
• The continuous improvement of autonomous driving technology
• A refresh of the Model Y, the brand's best-seller

The Cybertruck, which began production in 2024, is expected to contribute more significantly to deliveries in 2025. Tesla currently has a production capacity of around 125,000 units for this model, probably more than double the deliveries planned for this year.

Two new, more affordable electric models in sight

A key part of Tesla's 2025 strategy is the launch of two new electric vehicles in the first half of the year. These models, still without an official name, should be more affordable than the current Model 3 and Model Y, with starting prices estimated between 30,000 and 35,000 dollars.

These new vehicles will largely rely on the existing Model 3 and Model Y platform, while integrating certain characteristics of the new “unboxed” platform initially planned for Tesla's $25,000 project. This approach will allow Tesla to produce these new models on the same production lines as the Model 3 and Model Y, thus optimizing costs and time to market.

Autonomy as an additional selling point

Tesla CEO Elon Musk also mentioned that “the advent of autonomy” would contribute to the growth forecast for 2025. He appears to be referring to continued improvements to Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, which could become an even more convincing selling point for potential buyers.

Tesla plans to roll out an unsupervised version of its autonomous driving system sometime in 2025. If this promise comes to fruition, it could actually boost sales of Tesla vehicles equipped with this advanced technology.

Tesla also plans to launch a refreshed version of its Model Y at the beginning of 2025. As this model is the brand's best-selling, its renewal could have a significant impact on demand. However, switching to the new version could temporarily disrupt production, making the overall impact on growth in 2025 difficult to predict.

The challenges to be met to achieve this ambitious objective

Despite the optimism displayed by Tesla, several challenges will have to be overcome to achieve this growth objective:

• The ability to quickly increase production of new models
• The risk of cannibalization between the different models in the range
• Growing competition in the electric vehicle market
• Uncertainties linked to the deployment of autonomous driving

Ramping up production of the new models will be crucial to achieving the growth objective. Tesla will have to demonstrate its ability to efficiently produce these vehicles in large quantities, while maintaining its quality standards.

The risk of cannibalization between the different models in the Tesla range must also be taken into account. Although the new vehicles will be produced on the same lines as the Model 3 and Model Y, they could have a different design, like the Model S and X which are produced on the same line but have distinct appearances. Still, it's likely that these new, more affordable models will capture some of the sales of Tesla's current entry-level vehicles.

Ultimately, while Tesla's goal is ambitious, it is not unrealistic. The company has already demonstrated in the past its ability to grow quickly and overcome significant challenges. However, achieving 20-30% growth from an already high production base represents an unprecedented challenge for Tesla.

The year 2025 therefore promises to be a pivotal year for the American manufacturer. It will measure Tesla's ability to maintain its leadership position in the electric vehicle market in the face of increasingly fierce competition, while continuing to innovate and push the boundaries of automotive technology.

React to the article