US presidential election: bitcoin hits a new record

The dollar soared on Wednesday while bitcoin rose to a historic record, boosted by the possibility of an election of Donald Trump in the United States, the fall of the yen also helping to reinvigorate the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Around 7:30 a.m., the greenback climbed by 1.54% against the Japanese currency, to 153.95 yen per dollar and appreciated by 1.9% against the common European currency, to 0.9324 euros per dollar. .

While a feverish wait begins in the United States regarding the outcome of a very close election, the foreign exchange market reacted vigorously to the announcements of the first states won by former Republican President Donald Trump.

Economists and investors expect that if successful, it will put in place new customs barriers, reduce taxes and deregulate the economy – enough to cause a widening of the public deficit, then a rise in bond rates and consequently a rise in the dollar.

“Markets are starting to bet on Trump’s return. He won with a larger margin than expected in Florida, a very populous state, which reinforces expectations of Republican scores better than expected elsewhere in the country, underlined Yugo Tsuboi, strategist at Daiwa Securities, quoted in Asian exchange rates by the Bloomberg agency.

After Florida, the dollar consolidated its gains after the announcement of a victory for the Republican candidate in the key states of Georgia and North Carolina, highly contested and coveted by his Democratic rival Kamala Harris.

The markets “will adjust on Wednesday as new information becomes available,” insist MUFG analysts. They estimate that “the dollar could strengthen by around 7 to 8% compared to the base scenario in the event of a Kamala Harris victory.”

Bitcoin exceeded the $75,000 mark for the very first time, boosted by the prospect of regulatory relaxation in the event of Donald Trump’s victory.

After having exceeded its last absolute peak dating back to last March ($73,797.98), the first digital currency by capitalization rose to $75,371 around 7:30 a.m., an increase of around 10%.

The former president committed during the campaign to making the United States “the world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies” with an extremely relaxed regulatory framework – in contrast to the Biden government, considered to be in favor of strict regulation of the sector.

The “return to power (of Trump) would likely emphasize deregulation, tax incentives and economic policies favorable to alternative investments, such as bitcoin,” estimated before the election Nigel Green, analyst at deVere.

On the economic side, the mood seems quite good. Half an hour after the stock market opened, the indices were up. The SMI in Switzerland gained 1.5% at 9:30 a.m. In the first exchanges, the Paris Stock Exchange advanced significantly (1.11%), London gained 0.86%, Frankfurt 0.82% and Milan 0.63%.

On Wall Street, there was a sharp opening after Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election, according to stock index futures, which give an indication of trends before the start of the session. Around 08:30 GMT, the contract on the flagship Dow Jones index gained 2.24%, that on the broader S&P 500 index increased by 2.00%, while that for the Nasdaq, with a strong technological component, gained 1.65 %.

In Tokyo, the flagship Nikkei index closed up 2.61% to 39,480.67 points, and the broader Topix index ended with a jump of 1.94% to 2715.92 points. Supported from the opening by the upward revision of the forecasts of a significant number of Japanese companies during their quarterly publications, the Tokyo market accelerated its rise until briefly gaining more than 3%.

Conversely, the Chinese markets were divided and dominated by caution: around 7:30 a.m., the Shanghai composite index gained 0.44% to 3401.85 points, that of Shenzhen 0.87% to 2065.57 points. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong, on the other hand, plunged 2.40% to 20,502.24 points.