Central Europe is preparing for the worst. In recent days, a combination of weather phenomena has created the conditions for a major disaster in the region. For this weekend of September 14, several countries, first and foremost the Czech Republic and Austria, are expecting record rainfall that could cause terrible floods.
This exceptional episode expected for this weekend is the consequence of the meeting between a mass of warm air coming from the Mediterranean Sea and a mass of polar air installed for several days on the northwest of the Old Continent. The latter is also directly responsible for the unusually cool temperatures for the season observed in France this week.
A major depression in the heart of Europe
The conflict between the two air masses also ended up creating a major depression, Cyclone Boris, in the heart of Europe. As explained by MeteoSwiss, the Swiss Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, this depression “formed over northern Italy during the night from Wednesday to Thursday”.
According to forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), it is expected to move this Friday “over Croatia and then slowly over Hungary, eastern Austria and the Czech Republic as well as southern Poland”, dumping torrential rains in the process. According to MeteoSwiss, the current situation is comparable to that which caused “devastating floods in the Czech Republic, Austria and eastern Germany” in 2002.
“Huge rainfall is expected”
The Swiss meteorological agency explains that “particularly heavy precipitation occurs when the depression moves slowly, i.e. when the supply of moisture is continuous and the precipitation stationary over a region for a long period”, a situation which corresponds exactly to that of cyclone Boris.
Relying on the forecasts of the British private MetDesk service, Scottish meteorologist Scott Duncan confirms that “one of the most significant risks (linked to cyclone Boris) could be flooding”. “Huge rainfall is expected,” warns the researcher, with parts of central Europe potentially receiving more than 250 mm. Austria seems to be the epicentre.”
The equivalent, in three days, of half the rain that has fallen in Paris since the beginning of the year
Relatively close to those of the MetDesk, the ECMWF forecasts for their part announce volumes of precipitation that could reach, or even exceed, 300 mm. In three days, the equivalent of half of the total precipitation observed in Paris since the beginning of 2024 (594.6 mm on September 13, according to the Infoclimat website) could therefore fall on certain areas of central Europe.
In a post published Thursday, September 12 on X, French agrometeorologist Serge Zaka also warns of an imminent “meteorological catastrophe.” Explaining that “all the elements converge” in this sense, the latter relies on the forecasts of an American organization, Tropical Tidbits, to affirm that “between 100 and 300+mm of rain should fall on these densely populated areas surrounded by large agricultural plains.”
Czech Republic on high alert
In total, at least eight countries are expected to be directly affected by this episode that promises to be dantesque: Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia and Germany. As the MeteoAlarm website shows, the highest level of weather alert has been triggered in several of them (for example Austria and the Czech Republic) and urgent measures are being taken to try to limit the impact of the upcoming episode.
According to influencer Nahel Belgherze, who specializes in covering extreme weather events on Twitter (now X), the Czech authorities have decided to release gigantic volumes of water from certain dams in the east of the country, with the aim of “lowering the level of the reservoirs” and thus creating storage capacity for the monstrous rainfall expected in the coming hours.
In Austria and Slovakia, the army is ready to intervene
According to Libération, the battle stations are total in the east of the Czech Republic. The daily even specifies that “the cities of Moravia (a region located in this geographical area, editor’s note) have erected flood barriers and taken out sandbags to ward off the raging elements”. The vast majority of cultural events planned for this weekend have also been cancelled, in the Czech Republic as well as in neighbouring countries.
Cyclone Boris and its consequences are also at the heart of concerns in southern Poland, Slovakia and Austria. According to Libération, in the last two countries mentioned, the army has been alerted and is ready to intervene to help the many citizens who could be affected by this severe weather.
Disastrous repercussions on agricultural harvests?
Beyond the nightmare weekend that is coming for the inhabitants of these regions, the repercussions on the many agricultural areas they contain could be terrible in the short and medium term. “The potential agricultural damage is vast: corn, sunflowers, vines, arboriculture, sorghum, flooded livestock buildings, lists Serge Zaka, and risks being incredibly widespread in the low agricultural plains and reliefs from Prague to Bratislava via Vienna.”
According to the agrometeorologist, the current harvests in the fields of Central Europe are likely to be seriously impacted, which could then cause shortages and therefore major disruptions in the markets concerned. This is far from trivial, at a time when the agricultural sectors of most of the countries concerned are already going through a major crisis.
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