(Ecofin Agency) – Nigeria is the 3th African cocoa supplier behind Ivory Coast and Ghana. After several years of consecutive decline in its harvest, the productive system expects growth in 2024/2025.
In Nigeria, cocoa production is expected at 320,000 tonnes in 2024/2025. This is what the projections formulated by AFEX Commodities Exchange (AFEX), the country’s first private commodities exchange, reveal in a report published last Thursday, October 31.
This forecast, if it comes true, would reflect an increase of 10% compared to the previous campaign and would also sign a rebound for the sector which has had 4 consecutive seasons of drop in harvest since the 2020/2021 campaign.
To explain these optimistic projections, AFEX highlights favorable weather conditions in the southwest region of the country, the main cocoa production area coupled with the entry into production of new plantations.
“Several cocoa plant projects launched in recent years are now bearing fruit, with many trees reaching maturity and expanding the area available for harvesting”we can read in the report.
The private stock market also indicates that the rise in raw material prices in a context of global deficit has also aroused the interest of local producers who have invested more in the sector to take advantage of this momentum.
Indeed, cocoa prices have already climbed by more than 67% since the start of the year to close at 5,855 pounds sterling ($7,590) per tonne on October 27 on the London Stock Exchange. In addition, the World Bank indicates in its Commodity Markets Outlook 2024 report published on Tuesday October 29 that bean prices are expected to remain at high levels until the end of 2024.
“These high prices encouraged farmers to invest in essential pre-harvest activities, such as tree pruning, fertilizer application and pesticide use, which helped improve tree yields existing aging people”, indicates AFEX.
More broadly, these forecasts in Nigeria could help to somewhat ease fears linked to supply on the world market, especially since harvest forecasts in Côte d’Ivoire, the world leader in supply, are also optimistic.
In statements reported on October 21 by Bloomberg citing sources close to the Coffee-Cocoa Council (CCC), the Eburnean nation should record a 25% increase in its harvest to nearly 2.2 million tonnes in 2024/2025.
In Nigeria, cocoa is the main agricultural export product. According to data compiled on the Trade map platform, Nigerian shipments of the bean and its derived products generated nearly $759 million in revenue in 2023.
Stéphanas Assocle
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