On Polymarket, you can bet on everything. The winner of the Super Bowl, the next blockbuster, Fed rates, the price of gold, a ceasefire in the Middle East… And the winner of the American election.
This type of political betting has long been prohibited in the United States and the dollars that Americans bet still passed through platforms located outside the United States.
Read also: Donald Trump launches his cryptocurrency platform, but the project remains unclear
But, following a procedure brought and won by one of the start-ups in the sector, Kalshi, against the federal agency which manages these bets, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), they have just for the first time be authorized. But only on certain approved sites. Although the CFTC appealed this decision, millions flocked to the Kalshi, Robinhood, PredictIt and Polymarket sites.
Fictitious operations?
And it doesn't matter that Polymarket is run by a 26-year-old CEO, Shayne Coplan, and was fined $1.4 million two years ago by the CFTC. That stakes can only be deposited in cryptocurrency and that they are hosted on an offshore structure, because Polymarket has not been approved for this election. When it comes to betting on the future tenant of the White House, Polymarket is a hit. According to the state of the bets displayed live, the platform has already garnered 2.9 billion dollars in bets (2.6 billion euros).
But these extraordinary issues, much higher than those of other sites, arouse suspicion. Two specialized companies, Chaos Labs and Inca Digital, analyzed the bets and indicated to the American economic media Fortune that a substantial part was fictitious operations.
Surprisingly, four of the five biggest bets come from the same person operating from France under four different accounts, and who is said to have bet no less than 28.6 million dollars (26.3 million euros) alone.
An exceptionally favorable rating for Trump
Questioned by the American press, Polymarket assures that this “whale” (a large operator, in market jargon) is “an experienced trader” who acts “according to his own perception of the election” et “does not seek to manipulate the market”.
Who is this mysterious trader? We ignore him, the system protecting his anonymity. But, since it works via a blockchainit can be analyzed by specialists.
The affair would pose no other problem than financial if it did not result in a rating giving Donald Trump triumphantly winning at 62%, against 38% for Kamala Harris. This while the polls remain very close. On other betting sites, the gap is less enormous, but still to the advantage of Donald Trump, perhaps under the influence of his rating on Polymarket.
It doesn't take much for Elon Musk, a wealthy and influential supporter of Donald Trump, to see his victory assured. According to him, punters are finer analysts than pollsters, since they risk their money. As for Donald Trump, he is rubbing his hands. While ensuring “understand nothing” at these sites, he is content to note that he succeeds “really good”.
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