Rates fall, purchasing power rises!

According to a recent study by the Housing Credit Observatory, since the start of 2024, the real estate loan market has shown signs of recovery, despite the numerous constraints weighing on it, such as ceilings effort rates imposed by the Banque de France or the political-economic uncertainties which increased over the summer.

The sector benefits a renewed interest among households in purchasing real estatethus returning to the levels of purchasing intentions observed at the beginning of 2022, before the war in Ukraine and the increase in rates decided by the European Central Bank (ECB).

This rebound is supported by the slowdown in inflation, the gradual decline in credit rates and a more competitive banking offer. Indeed, the market turning point was reached in February 2024, allowing the sector to regain color after a difficult period.

Borrowing rates noted on 10/23/2024

Notable growth in the third quarter

The figures for the third quarter of 2024 confirm this positive dynamic, despite the usual seasonal variations. The production of real estate loans increased by 11.4% compared to the previous year, while the number of loans granted increased by 36%. These results mark a striking contrast with those of September 2023, when credit production fell by 37.8% and the number of loans by 36%.

If the month of August saw a usual decline in activity, with a fall of 33.8% (compared to an average of 31.2% over the long period). The month of September saw a recovery of 11.9%without however completely compensating for the summer decline. We will have to wait until October for the market to fully regain its dynamism.

A still uncertain context but a positive trend

Despite this recovery, the real estate loan market has not yet returned to its pre-crisis level. At the end of September 2024, credit production on a rolling annual basis was still down 13.8%an improvement compared to the previous year when it fell by 44%.

The number of loans granted, for its part, shows a faster increase than production, with an increase of 5.8% year-on-year. This difference is partly explained by the reduction in average amounts borrowed, with households tending to borrow more modest amounts.

An encouraging outlook for the end of the year

Despite economic uncertainties, the recovery observed in 2024 is expected to continue until the end of the year, barring a major external shock. Economic forecasts had already anticipated a worsening of public deficitsbut these factors have not slowed down the recovery of the real estate market.

The improvement in credit conditions, coupled with a more dynamic banking offering, continues to attract loan candidates, particularly young, less well-off households, including access to credit was previously limited by strict personal contribution requirements.