Progress in Asia’s energy transition is much slower, much less equitable and more complicated than many expected, Saudi Aramco’s CEO said Monday, calling for a policy reset for developing countries .
Even with the transition, as economies grow and living standards rise, countries in the Global South will likely experience significant growth in oil demand for a long time, and although this growth will stop at some point, it will likely be followed by a long plateau, said Aramco CEO Mr. Amin Nasser.
“If so, more than 100 million barrels per day will still be needed by 2050,” he said in a speech at the Singapore International Energy Week conference.
“This is in stark contrast to those who predict that oil will fall, or must fall, to just 25 million barrels per day by then. A shortage of 75 million barrels per day would be catastrophic for energy security and financial accessibility.
Countries should choose an energy mix that helps them achieve their climate ambitions at the speed and way that suits them, Mr. Nasser said. “We should focus on the levers available today.
This includes encouraging investments in the oil and gas that developing countries need and can afford, and prioritizing the reduction of carbon emissions associated with conventional sources by improving the energy efficiency and by developing carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS).
Despite billions of dollars invested in the global energy transition, demand for oil and coal has never been stronger, dealing a “massive blow” to energy transition plans, he said.
Asia, which consumes more than half of the world’s energy, still depends on conventional resources for 84% of its energy needs. Rather than displacing demand for conventional energy, alternatives primarily respond to growth in consumption, he added.
The shift to electric vehicles in Asia, Africa and Latin America lags behind China, the United States and the European Union as consumers face affordability and infrastructure.
Advances in EVs have no impact on the remaining 75% of global oil demand, Nasser said, because massive segments such as heavy transportation and petrochemicals have few economically viable alternatives to oil and gas. gas.
Developing countries could need nearly $6 trillion a year to finance the energy transition, and Nasser called for them to have a greater say in shaping climate policies.
“But the voice and priorities of Asia, like those of all countries in the South, are difficult to hear in current transition planning, and the whole world is feeling the consequences.
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