When will the next pension increase take place? This is a question shared by many retirees who, for the most part, have not benefited from a revaluation of their pension since January 1, when the last annual increase in basic pensions took place. For these pensions, we will still have to wait before a new increase applies. Especially since the government plans to push back their reassessment date by six months, setting it at July 1, 2025.
On the other hand, the nearly 14 million retirees of the Agirc-Arrco supplementary plan will not have to wait until 2025 to see their income increase. These pensions, intended for former employees in the private sector, are not revised on January 1, but on November 1. The next revaluation of their pensions is therefore coming quickly. The retirees concerned will notice the change from November 4, the date on which their new enhanced pension will be paid into their bank account.
It remains to be seen by how much these pensions will be increased, and bad news is looming on this point. First of all because inflation has slowed significantly since the start of 2024. A more significant slowdown in prices than INSEE thought. However, the revaluation of Agirc-Arrco pensions is based on the annual inflation rate indicated by the institute. Considering the latest figures published by the institute, the price increase would be around 2%.
However, the rate of increase in Agirc-Arrco pensions should be significantly lower than this percentage of 2%. In an agreement signed last year, the social partners managing the scheme have in fact provided for the possibility of under-indexing the increase in pensions by 0.4 points in relation to inflation. A decision taken to guarantee the financial stability of the plan. By applying this “sustainability factor”, the increase should be close to 1.5%. That is a relatively low rate.
Although some unions are opposed to this under-indexation of Agirc-Arrco pensions on November 1, it should normally apply given the political context tending towards the reduction of public spending. Supplementary retirement pensions for private sector employees should therefore be revalued at a rate down 0.4 points compared to inflation.
We will have to wait until October 15 for INSEE to publish its latest figures on inflation. However, it is precisely this same October 15 that the board of directors of Agirc-Arrco will take place within which the social partners must meet. The rate of increase in Agirc-Arrco pensions will therefore be officially announced at the end of this meeting.
The next increase in supplementary pensions will in all cases be significantly lower than last year, with a rate of 4.9% at the time. Small increases to which retirees will have to get used to in the months and years to come, with the slowdown in inflation combined with a general policy of reducing public spending.
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