The Banque des Territoires estimates that the construction of social housing, which has fallen below the 100,000 housing units per year mark since 2020, will continue to slow down and stabilise at an average of 72,000 new housing units per year from 2030.
Build or renovate? Social landlords, bound by ecological renovation obligations, will have to prioritize rehabilitation investments over new constructions in the coming years, according to a study by the Banque des Territoires published on Thursday.
A necessary arbitration to “maintain an acceptable financial situation”, while inflation and rising interest rates weaken their investment capacity, warn the authors of the annual report of the organization, the leading financier of social housing through the savings of the French, notably via the Livret A.
The Banque des Territoires, which makes projections up to 2062, estimates that the construction of social housing, which has fallen below the 100,000 housing units per year mark since 2020, should continue to slow down and stabilise at an average of 72,000 new housing units per year from 2030.
To make its calculations, the Banque des Territoires is basing its calculations on the assumption of inflation and a Livret A rate of 2% on average from 2027 and a return to neutral credit rates from the end of 2026.
Renovations are expected to peak at 130,000 homes per year between 2024 and 2027, before gradually declining to an average rate of 90,000 per year over the period 2030-2062.
“Combining ‘green’ and social investments”
This is not only a question of meeting the requirements of the Climate and Resilience Act, which plans to gradually ban the rental of the most energy-intensive housing, but also those of the National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC), a national roadmap for limiting greenhouse gas emissions.
“The concern is how to combine ‘green’ and social investments,” Kosta Kastrinidis, director of loans at the Banque des Territoires, one of the branches of the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations (CDC), told AFP.
Especially since renovation costs have almost doubled in some regions. “We are on an average increase of 65% between 2013 and 2023 (…) Today we are on average at 60,000 euros per dwelling”, notes Kosta Kastrinidis.
“We must protect what already exists, but this must be accompanied by continued investment in new buildings,” he insists.
The construction of social housing today remains “well below the needs of public policy which would require a level of production higher than 90,000 per year, while we know today that we have a level of applicants on the waiting list which continues to grow”, he notes.
The number of households waiting for social housing stood at 2.7 million in the first half of 2024, a new record, according to the Social Union for Housing (USH).
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